Is Negotiating with Gaddafi the Only Way Out?

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Louafi Larbi / Reuters

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi waves from a car in his compound in Tripoli after a meeting with a delegation of five African leaders on April 10, 2011

South African President Jacob Zuma landed in Tripoli Sunday to meet with Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi to discuss a resolution to the ongoing crisis. The U.N. Security Council–mandated no-fly zone was briefly lifted in order to allow Zuma and his entourage to arrive directly in Tripoli, the first high-profile delegation of international leaders since the start of the crisis. Meanwhile, other members of the African Union plan to go to the rebel-held city of Benghazi on Monday to assist with a possible resolution there. Few hold any hope that the Africans will be successful, even as there is an increasing realization that the Libyan crisis cannot be solved on the battlefield alone. Nevertheless, Zuma emerged from his meeting to declare that the regime "had accepted the road map as presented by us." Details of that road map are expected to be released in a communiqué after the African Union meeting in Benghazi.

After six weeks of unrest, positions have hardened on both sides. The rebels, though militarily outmatched, have little to gain from a diplomatic resolution. Gaddafi's government forces are determined — and able — to cling to power for several months, despite economic sanctions. "We hate Gaddafi," says a young IT engineer sipping espresso in Tripoli's old suq. "But I don't see how we are ever going to get rid of him." The engineer, whose name cannot be used for safety reasons, describes an environment so oppressive and powerful that "sometimes I wonder if even thinking bad things about Gaddafi might get us into trouble." Indeed, even our conversation was fraught with danger. I had managed to slip away from my minder as I wandered the suq; the young engineer, having spied my escape, fell into step beside me and, staring straight ahead as we walked, asked if I thought I was getting the truth. Cautiously I responded that it all depended on what the truth was. The persistent presence of minders and government goons had made me paranoid. "The truth is, they are killing us," he said in an undertone. "Gaddafi is squeezing the people like a snake." We twisted and turned through the small alleyways until we reached a café that he deemed safe enough for a continued conversation.

He told me he was envious of the young men and women of Egypt's Tahrir Square. In the first days of Libya's protests, he had joined his friends in the streets. But then he saw three of his neighbors killed. Others simply disappeared. "There are snitches everywhere," he says. "Even when you think you are among friends, people are listening to everything you say." He had asked me to put away my notebook, for fear it was too obvious. Instead I tapped out our conversation on my phone, hoping anyone watching would think I was playing a game.

I ask how he thinks it will all end. He shakes his head. "It won't start from here," he says, meaning Tripoli. "We are waiting for Benghazi." By Benghazi, he means the rebel headquarters in the east. It has been a common refrain among Tripoli residents. Gaddafi's power is simply too strong in Tripoli for any kind of organized resistance.

As much as the dissenters in Tripoli have faith in the rebels in the east, it's unlikely that they will be arriving anytime soon. Their six-week-long campaign to topple Gaddafi's 42-year regime has slowed under a fierce onslaught by loyalist forces. And while NATO air strikes on military targets have helped, there are still risks. Gaddafi's forces have changed their tactics, moving tanks and other hardware into cities where strikes are too risky. They now move to the front in civilian vehicles, sowing confusion. And when rebels tried to advance last week in stolen tanks, they were mistaken for government forces and hit by NATO strikes.

On Sunday NATO strikes near the cities of Ajdabiyah and Misratah helped cement some rebel gains, but it is unclear how long they can hold and if they will be able to advance any further. African Union mediators who arrived with Zuma on Sunday appealed for "an immediate end to all hostilities" and proposed a transition period to institute reforms. The U.S., the U.K. and France, echoing the rebel stance, say that Gaddafi and his family have to go.

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