Chance for the Son to Shine

Revered and feared leader of an economically backward, Stalinist nation dies while at war with his technologically advanced and democratic neighbor. Tyrant's son, withdrawn and lacking father's charisma and clout, assumes power and, after consolidating authority, invites his enemy's leader to a summit where they pledge to end their half-century of discord.

If Kim Jong Il could do that in North Korea last week, can't Bashar Assad do the same in Syria in the not-too-distant future? Oh sure, parallels outside geometry aren't perfect and in geopolitics motivations always differ. But this is the hope: that two dangerous, isolated states, naturally acting out of self-interest but with fresh eyes, can see the light.

No one knows whether the process set in motion last week on the Korean peninsula will endure and succeed. But the first step has been taken and that's what must also happen in Damascus. It certainly was not going to take place with Hafez Assad in charge. Shed no tears for the late dictator of Syria. Essentially a shrewd but insecure 19th century warlord who stabilized his country while trying to destabilize his neighbors, he was not a leader with whom the West could do productive diplomatic business. He was brutal and intransigent. He fomented terrorism, including attacks on the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, and was a godfather to the Hizballah guerrillas who fire missiles from southern Lebanon into Israel. Indeed, Assad's death on June 10 may do more for Middle East peace and Syria than anything he did in 69 years of life, including 30 at the helm.

Starting shortly after the 1973 October War, nine U.S. Secretaries of State repeatedly made the trek to Damascus to negotiate with Assad. I accompanied three. Some considered him brilliant and humorous; others found him rude and exasperating. He once had Warren Christopher, who made 18 trips to Damascus, sit 24 hours before keeping their appointment. Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton met him in Geneva. All found him unmovable. Assad's talk with Clinton in March was an obstructionist travesty. Still, when informed of his death, instead of saying "Good," which would have been truthful, the U.S. President declared that he had "respected" the Syrian. "I felt that he meant it when he said that he had made a strategic choice for peace," said Clinton, either feeling something the rest of the world missed or shaving the truth in a effort to prompt something better from Bashar Assad, the 34-year-old son and political heir.

That's worth trying because Bashar, trained in England as an eye doctor, and the President of Syria's nascent computer society, at least represents a new generation. That doesn't necessarily mean he'll be different or better, but he might be. After all, no analysts expected much from Kim Jong Il, who after last week is under the reassessment microscope.

In Syria, first things first. If he is to become the modernizer his destitute nation needs, Bashar has to survive politically. That's no certainty, especially as a minority Alawite in a sea of Sunni Muslims waiting for him to put a foot wrong. Assad pre was not only ruthless, but, as a former fighter pilot and Defense Minister, was fully supported by the military. Whether Assad fils, a mild-mannered intellectual by most accounts, with no military experience, can maintain stability and start moving Syria into the 21st century is a question that will take time to answer. Remember, in Korea it's been six years since the senior Kim, for five decades the deified Great Leader, went to his reward.

In Syria, peace talks with Israel will be on hold until the dust settles. That should not take years, but months at a minimum, and will be after Clinton leaves office. Until then and likely beyond, Bashar won't do anything that his father would not approve of or that might make him appear weak. At the funeral, for example, Bashar focused on Iran's President, Mohammed Khatami, his ally against Israel and Turkey, and Hizballah's Hasan Nasrallah. Leaders from the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia, which support Syria's dreadful economy, also received special treatment. Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, vilified in Damascus since he made peace with Israel in 1993, was all but ignored. U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright had only a few minutes with Bashar, more evidence that peace with Israel is not even on the back burner, but off the stove.

Inviting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak to Damascus is not the answer, though, as in Korea, it would be a powerful symbol. There are concrete steps Bashar should take which would be equally telling: open the state economy; end support for terrorism, including in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley; stop the shipment of Iranian arms to Hizballah; free Israel's missing-in-action soldiers. And since we've been discussing Kim Jong Il, stop working with Pyongyang on ballistic missile technology. Do a few of those and the world will be contemplating a new Syria, not just a new Syrian.