Deadly Clashes on South Sudan’s Path to Freedom

Days after Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir accepted the referendumresults granting southern Sudan its independence, more than 100 peoplehave died in clashes between the south’s army and a renegade general.The fighting is the latest in a wave of violence that has all butextinguished the party atmosphere in the south, while raising seriousquestions over the future of the world’s newest nation.

South Sudan was already set to be one of the poorest countries in theworld, with little in the way of economy, infrastructure, health oreducation services, or even government. Expecting to finally be able to tap into the oil revenues that the south will take with it when freedom is made official in July, southerners think things will start to change for the better. But if even basic peace can’t be achieved, will anything really change?

(See photos of Southern Sudan at the polls.)

On Feb. 7, officials in Sudan’s capital Khartoum announced thatsoutherners had voted by 99% to separate from northern rule and form anew country in a referendum held in January. The vote wasthe centerpiece of a 2005 peace deal between the ethnic Africansouthern rebels and Sudan’s Arab-dominated government in the north.After decades of war in which more than 2 million people died,southerners could barely contain their jubilation when it became clear that independence was in reach, dancing and singingin celebration. But by then there were already brewing signs oftrouble ahead.

Four days before the referendum result was announced, a group of former southern militiamen who are now part of the Sudanese army mutinied againsttheir bases in the south’s Upper Nile state after being ordered todisarm. The skirmishes cost 60 lives before calm was restored. ThenJust after the outcome of the vote was declared, on Feb. 9, a low-level cabinetminister was assassinated in his Juba office when a man with whom hehad a family dispute grabbed a gun left inside the minister’s car andfollowed him upstairs. That same day fighting broke out in the southernstate of Jonglei between the south’s military, the Sudan People’sLiberation Army (SPLA), and the breakaway forces of George Athor, aformer commander who took up arms against Juba after losing agubernatorial bid for Jonglei in Sudan’s April 2010 elections. Athorbriefly captured the town of Fangak. The two-day battle left 105people dead, 39 of them civilians, according to the SPLA.

(See TIME’s video of the blind but empowered people of Southern Sudan.)

None of this bodes well for the future of south Sudan. During theprevious civil war, more southerners died at each other’s hands thanwere killed by their northern enemies, who funded and armed southerntribal rivals. At one point, then senior rebel commander Riek Machar, who is now south Sudan’s vice president,formed his own opposing SPLAwith the support of Khartoum, splitting the movement along triballines and spiraling the war into an orgy of ethnic southernbloodletting. Numerous other splinter groups followed.

In that sense, Athor — a veteran of the south’s guerrilla movement —was simply following an old bush tradition when he attacked an SPLAbarracks to begin his rebellion last year. Three other dissidents alsolaunched their own uprisings last year. None have been fullysquelched. And, with the referendum over, more violence could follow. In the months leading up to the vote, southern leaders showed rare unity,joining hands for what they dubbed their “final walk to freedom.” EvenAthor signed a ceasefire just four days before polls opened. Thecommon bond now dissolved, the south’s edifice of solidarity couldcrumble.

(See a brief history of new nations.)

Part of the problem is logistical. In a land of swamp and bush, with nopaved roads, a seemingly endless supply of firearms, and a population of restless young men, a ruralinsurgency is much too easy to start and much too difficult to stop. But, other issues are more fundamental. Tribal politicsare set to define the new nation’s power center. A common complaint formany is the dominance of the new government and army by the Dinka ethnicgroup, the largest in the south. Rule of law is sparse and favorsthose in charge; land grabbing is common. The south’s new rulers nowfind themselves accused of being elitist and exclusionary — the samecomplaints they had about their former Arab rulers in the north. “The[new] leadership must find a way to manage the south’s own diversityso it doesn’t simply replicate the regime in Khartoum that they’vefinally managed to escape,” says Zach Vertin, an analyst for theInternational Crisis Group.

Can they succeed? Will freedom open a new pathfor southern Sudan? Or will the world’s youngest nation remain trappedin the bloodletting of the past? For now, all the south can do is hope— and maybe spread the new oil wealth around. “We are calling on ourcomrade general George Athor to take a look at south Sudan’s history,”says the SPLA’s spokesman Philip Aguer. “Listen to the logic of peace.Try to give a chance for us to build this new nation.”

See TIME’s most unforgettable images of 2010.

See TIME’s special report “The Middle East in Revolt.”