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THE FOREIGN-POLICY MAN
Koizumi came to power trumpeting a new domestic agenda. Yet ironically, he will probably be most remembered for his bold departures in foreign policy. Watching the seemingly inexorable rise of China, Koizumi made a strategic decision to tie his country's fortunes more tightly to those of the U.S. than ever before. Under Koizumi, Foreign Minister Taro Aso recently said, Japan's strategy has been "to build strong relations with America and, based on this, deepen relations with other nations." It's been a policy marked by boldness. Koizumi's decision to send the troops to Iraq paid off; the Japanese neither suffered nor caused a single casualty. But many people in Japan, already concerned that their nation is dependent on the U.S., worry that too strong an alliance may alienate other potential friends. In its global hunt for oil, for example, Japan has drawn rebukes from Washington for being too close to Iran. Japan consumes 22% of Iranian oil and its $1 billion project to develop Iran's giant Azadegan oilfield has been a point of irritation to the U.S. government. Sentiment in Japan is still more pro-American than just about anywhere else in the world, but it can't be taken for granted; resentment over U.S. bases in Okinawa and other areas of Japan still festers. According to the 15-nation Pew Global Attitudes Survey, 63% of Japanese have a favorable view of the US, down from 72% in 2002.
In contrast to his strategy of getting close to the U.S., Koizumi has responded to renewed regional competition by pursuing consistently provocative, even confrontational, policies with China, South Korea and Russia over everything from land disputes to unresolved colonial and World War II history. "Japan's Asian relations are in a shambles," says Temple's Kingston. "Koizumi has dug Japan into a very deep hole with Korea and China, and it's now up to his successors to find a way out." No issue has strained Japan's relations with its neighbors more than Koizumi's defiant annual pilgrimages to Yasukuni Shrine, which honors 2.5 million of Japan's war dead, including 14 convicted World War II Class A war criminals like Hideki Tojo, the notorious general and wartime Prime Minister. Although most Japanese scarcely give the place a second thought, many Asian governments see the shrine as an unapologetic homage to Japan's warmongering past. Every time Koizumi visits, he sparks a firestorm—especially from China and South Korea—which routinely cancel official meetings and file furious protests. "It is difficult to overestimate the role of Yasukuni Shrine in the poor state of Asian relations right now," says Peter Beck, director of the North East Asia Project at the International Crisis Group in Seoul. Tang Jiaxuan, a Chinese State Council member in charge of diplomacy, has singled out Yasukuni as the issue that has made current Sino-Japanese relations "the most difficult" since the two nations normalized relations in 1972.
Koizumi insists that his visits to the shrine are a domestic and religious matter, maintaining that he goes to Yasukuni only to pay respects to Japan's war dead and to pray for peace. But even some of his closest advisors privately confess they cannot understand his position. Indeed, Yasukuni is a highly controversial issue even within Japan. Last June, five former Japanese Prime Ministers asked Koizumi to stop going to the shrine and only the most conservative of Japan's major newspapers still runs editorials in favor of the visits. Steven Vogel, an associate professor of political science at the University of California at Berkeley, sees the changing of the guard as a chance for both sides to save face. If Koizumi's successor refrains from visiting Yasukuni and improves relations with China, says Vogel, he will have "a real opportunity to put this issue behind Japan."
THE SUCCESSION
Will that opportunity be taken? the leading candidate to replace Koizumi as Prime Minister is Shinzo Abe, the current Chief Cabinet Secretary. Just 51 years old, Abe is young, energetic, popular, well-liked and widely considered Koizumi's preferred heir. He comes from an old political family and has generally been a staunch supporter of Koizumi's initiatives. Abe is also one of Japan's most prominent hawks, well known for his wariness about China's rise, his hard line on North Korea, and even for questioning the validity of the post-World War II Tokyo Tribunals war-crimes trials. (One of Abe's grandfathers was an accused Class A war criminal later released without trial). In the past, Abe has vehemently defended the Prime Minister's right to visit Yasukuni, though a degree of pragmatism may be setting in. In recent weeks, Abe has conspicuously failed to give a direct answer on whether he would go to the shrine as Prime Minister. Kent Calder, director of the Edwin O. Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at Johns Hopkins University, says Koizumi's attempts to legitimize Yasukuni have failed. "I don't think his successor—even Abe—will be able to go at all if he wants to have an effective Asia diplomacy," says Calder. Those LDP members dissatisfied with Abe for being too inexperienced or too hawkish frequently name Yasuo Fukuda, Koizumi's former Chief Cabinet Secretary as having the best chance of an upset. Also from an old political family, Fukuda, 69, is considered a more traditional, consensus-building kind of Japanese politician who's also interested in mending relations with China. He has publicly criticized Koizumi's Yasukuni fixation and has joined a coalition of Diet members calling for a new, nonsectarian memorial to honor Japan's war dead. Says Calder: "Abe would be charismatic, reformist, populist, and more conservative on national-security and constitutional matters, though he would also be more flexible and pragmatic than Koizumi. Fukuda, on the other hand, has a more sophisticated sense of international affairs. He's a strong believer in the U.S.-Japan alliance but he also has excellent ties in China, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Europe. He would be more cautious about reform and listen to mainstream views."
When Koizumi steps down in september, Japanese politics will lose a little spark. That he changed Japan in significant ways is undeniable. He drew the public into the political process like never before, he restored their confidence and convinced the nation to venture more boldly into the world after more than a decade of economic malaise and uncertainty. But Koizumi's was an imperfect reign. Running into stiff resistance from the forces against change, he achieved far less than he intended to, and, in the end, abandoned some of his most cherished initiatives. His ironclad support of the U.S. was matched only by his seeming contempt towards his nearest neighbors and his utter indifference to forging a community of Asian nations. What Koizumi's successors lack in flash, they could make up for with concrete gains in constitutional reform, long-term fiscal planning and improved relations with Japan's neighbors. Koizumi may be a tough act to follow—on that, everyone agrees. But with some luck and lots of wise statecraft, his successor may not, in fact, find the departing Prime Minister an impossible act to top.