Could Lula's Health Affect Brazil's Succession?

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DPA / ZUMApress.com

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva with his annointed successor Dilma Rousseff, January 11, 2010.

When Brazil's President was hospitalized last week for hypertension caused by stress and tiredness, one member of his inner circle had more reason than most to hope for a quick and hearty recovery. Dilma Rousseff is is not only chief of staff to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva; she's also his personal choice to succeed him as the Workers' Party presidential candidate in October's general election. The constitution prevents Lula from seeking a third consecutive term, which is why he picked the tough-talking former Marxist-Leninist to carry on his progressive policies. But to win the job, Dilma — who, like many Brazilian public figures is known by just one name — will need Lula out on the campaign trail.

Lula has promised to work as hard as possible to ensure his protégé is elected, but the health scare throws a question mark over whether the 64-year-old leader has the stamina to both run the world's ninth biggest economy and stump for Dilma. He was taken into hospital last Wednesday with high blood pressure after spending a grueling day in the harsh sun of Brazil's interior. His doctors said the hypertension was an aberration caused by stress and tiredness, and released him the next morning with a clean bill of health. Still, Lula canceled his trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos, and was ordered to spend the weekend resting.

The health scare suffered by the normally robust President is a major worry for Dilma, who has never run for office and is little known and — so far at least — little liked. Although she is widely respected as hardworking and competent, she also has a reputation for being domineering and authoritarian. Analysts agree that for Dilma to have any chance of being elected, she'll need the popular Lula by her side.

"It's too early to say if there will be any restrictions on him, but it is a yellow light for Dilma that makes it clear how dependent she is on Lula," political analyst João Augusto de Castro Neves said from the capital Brasilia. "Her team must be thinking, 'Uh-oh, we need a Plan B.' It is hard with Lula, it will be harder without him. She is banking on a transfer of votes."

Early polls put Dilma in second place, behind Jose Serra, the São Paulo governor who has yet to formally declare his candidacy. A December Datafolha poll gives her 23%, against Serra's 37%. Still, that's a 7-point gain over her numbers from last August, which suggests she is on the right track. Still, she clearly has her work cut out to make herself known to voters, especially in poorer and more remote parts of the country. "She doesn't do well at rallies," Castro Neves said. "She is trying to change that, but with Lula alongside her it's different. Lula is so popular he could elect a stick. He hugs the stick and people like the stick."

Lula's health scare becomes all the more compelling given the questions hanging over Dilma's own health: The 62-year-old was diagnosed last year with early lymphoma, and spent several months undergoing chemotherapy. She battled through and has now declared herself free from the disease, but the episode raised obvious questions over her long-term health.

Right now, Dilma's focus is on gaining momentum before April, when she must officially declare her candidacy. She'll need to visit the farthest corners of Brazil and get her face constantly on television and in the newspapers, something she has done diligently over the last year by sticking to Lula like a shadow. But it remains an open question whether she can build a critical mass of voter support without her charismatic mentor alongside her.

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