Thai Court Gives Thaksin Two Years

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Chaiwat Subprasom / Reuters

Anti-government demonstrators walk past a floor mat bearing images of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife Potjaman, for sale outside the Government House in Bangkok in September

Thailand's political crisis appeared to deepen on Tuesday when the country's Supreme Court sentenced former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to two years in prison for violating conflict of interest laws while in office. The Supreme Court delivered a victory to the anti-Thaksin protesters that have been camped out in Bangkok for months when it ruled 5 to 4 that the former Thai leader broke Thai law by approving the sale of state-owned Bangkok real estate to his wife for $22.7 million.

Thaksin, who was ousted from power by the military in a 2006 bloodless coup, got the news in London, where he fled in August with his family after his wife, Pojaman, was found guilty of tax evasion by Thailand's Criminal Court. (As the buyer of the land, Pojaman was also charged in the Oct. 21 case, but she was found not guilty by the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Office because she was not a state official, and not liable to conflict of interest charges.) There was no immediate reaction from Thaksin or his lawyers in Bangkok, and it remains to be seen how London will respond to the ruling. Thaksin has consistently denied violating any corruption or conflict of interest laws since several charges have been brought against him in recent years. He told the Thai press that he would prepare a written response to the verdict in coming days.

Analysts say the verdict, which is by law not open to appeal, could put an end to any hopes the still-influential Thaksin has for a political comeback in his homeland. But it would not necessarily put an end to his legacy, says Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political analyst at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University — or the current divisions over him that have Thailand's people on the edge of violence. Sometimes said to be the most divisive political figure in Thailand's history, Thaksin remains enormously popular with the rural poor for his populist policies like cheap health care and easy credit. But the billionaire businessman is also still reviled by the urban middle class and conservatives, who view him as a corrupt authoritarian whose power and wealth posed a threat to the nation's revered monarchy.

The sentence gives a big boost to the People's Alliance for Democracy, a coalition of anti-government protesters whose demonstrations helped bring down Thaksin in 2006. At the Government House on Tuesday, the official site of the PM's offices which PAD has now occupied for two months, protesters chanted, "Put Thaksin in jail," after the verdict was announced. Their ongoing fight against the former PM also helped push Thaksin ally Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej out of power in August. The PAD now claims the current democratically elected government, led by Thaksin's brother-in-law Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, is acting under orders from Thaksin, and is demanding his resignation.

The next standoff between the two camps is likely to be over the country's constitution. The government said earlier this week that it would begin selecting members of an assembly to rewrite the current constitution within 120 days. The government's original announcement in April that it would change the charter, drafted by a military-appointed assembly and approved in a national referendum in 2007, brought the PAD back out on to the streets after it had been dormant for a year-and-a-half. Thaksin's opponents are worried the government is trying to rewrite the constitution in ways that will invalidate this verdict and the other corruption charges against him, as well as electoral fraud charges against the ruling People Power Party. "With this guilty verdict, it is going to be harder for the government to push through any charter changes that would exonerate Thaksin or grant him an amnesty," Panitan said.

Thaksin has officially applied for political asylum in the United Kingdom, claiming Thailand's courts are biased against him. But his case may be weakening. Last week, a Thai court dismissed an assets concealment charge against the former Prime Minister, and earlier this year three of Thaksin's lawyers were jailed when they were caught attempting to bribe court officials overseeing his cases. All this is making it harder, says Panitan, for Thaksin's friends and allies in Thailand and overseas to defend him in his accusations against Thailand's courts. "Conflict of interest laws are a common feature of developed societies. To defend Thaksin now is to basically oppose the rule of law," Panitan said.