Mubarak Asserts Control in Egypt

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Egypt is one of America's most important allies — and also one of its frailest. Its president, Hosni Mubarak, will have ruled the country for 27 years by October; but instead of looking for a democratic succession, his regime has only sought to pile-drive his legacy into the future, disarming the opposition with rigged elections and run-ins with the mukhabarat, the ubiquitous internal security police. That agenda can be seen at work in the handful of parliamentary elections that took place last weekend, polls that resulted, not surprisingly, in a complete victory for Mubarak's ruling National Democratic Party.

As the recipient of one of the largest amounts of U.S. aid, Egypt must at the very least put up the appearance of democracy to acknowledge American principles. In practice, however, Cairo is the center of a police state. All political parties must be approved by the Political Parties Committee, which is appointed by the government.

That has not stopped the Muslim Brotherhood, an outlawed, socially conservative Islamist party, from winning one-fifth of the seats in parliament with its members running as unaffiliated independents. Despite the legal roadblocks — Cairo decries the MB's history of terror — the party has proven popular at the grassroots level (its social organizations provide education and health services in the communities that the government does not reach). And so, when seats in what were presumably MB strongholds became vacant in 2005, the government found several legal reasons to postpone elections. Until last weekend.

Almost as soon as the Ministry of the Interior announced the snap election on July 2nd, the Brotherhood suffered harrassment and arrest: an estimated 50 Muslim Brothers are believed to have been taken into custody. The MB, nevertheless, managed to field candidates for three of the four open seats. The districts, according to Reuters, saw only a "trickle" of voters at the polling stations on July 13. The next day the government declared victory. The MB pronounced the results fraudulent.

Such heavy-handed attempts to shore up the regime seem to work for now, but they may be shortsighted. A recent study conducted by the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based NGO, argues that it would be beneficial, both for the government and the country, to gradually integrate the Brotherhood into Egypt's political system. ICG analysts say that Mubarak's efforts to combat the Brothers have "noticeably degraded the quality of parliamentary and political life, entrenching the NDP's virtual monopoly and dealing a severe blow to the legal, non-Islamist opposition."

Mohammad Ayoob, professor of International Relations at Michigan State, agrees. He argues that "repression provides more space for the Islamist parties" to operate with extreme political platforms. But "if the system opens up" and if the government takes the initial steps towards socializing the Brothers by allowing them to play on a politically level playing field, he says, the party would have the incentive to work within the system rather than against it.

That is a direction the security-obsessed Mubarak regime may find difficult to take. In the Brotherhood's 80-year history, its members have been involved in several attempts on the life of modern Egypt's founding President Gamal Abdel Nasser in the 1950s; earlier the Brotherhood was implicated in the assassination of Egyptian Prime Minister Nuqrashi.

Accomodating the MB's agenda will also be difficult. While individual Brothers have varying views on religious and social issues, the party as a whole limits the roles of women and non-Muslims (they cannot, for example, hold the office of President). It also wishes to create a council to "guarantee that legislation adopted by the president and parliament conform with Sharia" — that is, Islamic law. For Egypt's secular rulers, such views are problematic; many believe legalizing the Brotherhood as a party would validate its views, and that any of the MB's actions would be simply cosmetic. Heritage Foundation Middle East analyst James Phillips argues that accepting the Brotherhood is too dangerous, that it will appear democratic at first, but "once in power would return to [its] old views."

Ultimately, the decision is Mubarak's. The President shows no signs of giving in, and he does not seem ready to leave office any time soon. Having come to power as the result of the assassination of President Anwar al-Sadat, he seems resolved to avoid any descent into chaos — which he appears to believe is a parliament not effectively under his control.

Still, Mubarak turned 80 this year; and a succession must be devised. New parliamentary elections will take place in 2010; and Presidential elections in 2011. Mubarak's son, Gamal, has always seemed an easy pick as the dynastic candidate, but he is not a member of the officer corps, from which every leader since the 1950s has emerged. There is no other obvious alternative. Meanwhile, the rapidly expanding, impoverished and young population of Egypt will continue to gravitate toward the outlaw appeal of the Muslim Brotherhood.