A New Man for Lebanon's Old Puzzle

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EPA / WAEL HAMZEH

Michel Suleiman, President of Lebanon, salutes during a ceremony in Lebanon in 2007.

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As President, Suleiman is expected to maintain the pliant role as a "cushion rather than a decisive player" to prevent the country from "exploding or falling apart," says Salem.

Topping the list of challenges facing Suleiman is the fate of Hizballah's arms — more pressing than ever after the Shi'ite group smashed the 19-month deadlock and routed its rivals with the stunning military seizure of west Beirut on May 9. The group's success on the ground is mirrored in the Doha agreement, hammered out in Qatar last week. In the deal, Lebanon's bickering leaders agreed to elect Suleiman, settled on an electoral law for next year's parliamentary elections, and formed a new government of national unity that grants the Hizballah-led opposition its long-sought demand of a veto-wielding third share of cabinet seats. That means the opposition can block any legislation it doesn't like, making it even less likely that various United Nations resolutions calling for disarming Hizballah will be heeded.

In his inaugural address on Sunday, Suleiman said that Lebanon required a strong national defense strategy incorporating the "capabilities of the resistance" alongside the Lebanese army to confront "Israeli aggression." Hizballah's domestic opponents in the so-called "March 14 coalition" will press hard to limit the Shi'ite party's ability to use its weapons. But they have little leverage against a Hizballah that has proven it will fight to prevent being disarmed.

"This is a very complicated process," says Timur Goksel, a Beirut-based university lecturer and long-time observer of Hizballah. "Suleiman is a cool-headed man and he knows his limitations. I don't think he will rush into anything."

Among the foreign and Arab dignitaries attending Suleiman's election in the Lebanese parliament was Walid Muallem, Syria's foreign minister. It was the first official visit to Beirut by a senior Syrian official since 2005, signaling the possibility of a rapprochement between Damascus and the new government in Beirut.

Syria is still considered the chief suspect in the assassination of Rafik Hariri, a former Prime Minister who was killed in a truck bomb explosion in February 2005. An international tribunal is being established to try Hariri's killers and the perpetrators of several other assassinations since then. Syria has denied involvement in the deaths and argues that the tribunal is nothing more than a political weapon wielded by the U.S. Still, few doubt that fences need to be mended between Lebanon and Syria, however difficult that may prove: in their 60 or so years of independent existence, the two neighbors have never formally demarcated their joint border nor exchanged diplomatic representatives.

So as the pomp and circumstance of his inauguration fade, President Suleiman faces a daunting barrage of political obstacles if he is to keep his beleaguered country peaceful, independent and intact.

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