Israeli borderguards block the entrance to the Orient House in East Jerusalem
Matt Rees: Right now they haven't resolved their strategic debates. After a lengthy discussion, the cabinet voted 9-3 in favor of last night's actions with one abstention. The three Labor ministers who voted against, and the Likud member who abstained did so not because they're squeamish about attacking Palestinians — they'd all voted in favor of last week's air strike on Hamas in Nablus that killed eight Palestinians. Rather, they were expressing doubt that the actions taken overnight would help Israel's cause. By closing down Orient House, the unofficial Palestinian headquarters in East Jerusalem as well as the various Palestinian offices in Abu Dis, they're once again moving Jerusalem to forefront, and that could make things more difficult.
Presumably one of the difficulties of closing down Orient House, which had always operated without official Israeli consent, is that Sharon can't easily reopen it without appearing to concede to Arafat's claim over East Jerusalem, which is something he resolutely opposes
Right. It's a political move against Arafat in East Jerusalem, rather than a military one, sending a message that the Israelis don't have to assassinate Arafat, they can simply administer a slow political death. Orient House had always operated outside of existing agreements, which don't allow Arafat's administration to operate in East Jerusalem. But Abu Dis is not in East Jerusalem. It's technically in the West Bank, abutting Jerusalem, and it had earlier been designated as the site where the Palestinians would build their capital — close enough to Jerusalem for them to call it part of the city, and yet technically outside of it at the same time to satisfy Israeli concerns.
Ehud Barak had planned to hand it over to Arafat along with two other villages abutting Jerusalem in the months preceding last year's Camp David talks. The Palestinian Authority had even constructed a building there that could serve as their parliament. Last night the Israelis closed down offices there housing the Palestinian religion ministry, the commerce ministry and the prisoners' club. Also the governor's mansion that houses a number of Palestinian security and intelligence forces. These had exerted quite a lot of influence on life in East Jerusalem in civil affairs, but also in terms of policing and intelligence. So they've cut Arafat off at the knees in Jerusalem.
And that challenges Arafat to respond in Jerusalem. Until now, the city itself had been relatively quiet through most of the intifada. Is the battle for the Holy City going to heat up again?
Despite the fact that Jerusalem is the symbolic focus of the current intifada, there hasn't been a lot of action in Jerusalem in comparison to elsewhere. It's really only the suicide bombers that have made Jerusalem their focus, and that's also comparatively recent, now that stepped up army patrols have made it more difficult for the bombers to reach towns in central Israel.
But it's difficult for Arafat to respond, because by closing these offices, the Israelis have hamstrung him in East Jerusalem. 'Tanzim' gunmen can't move around easily because there are Israeli soldiers everywhere. And that's been his only mode of operating, lately. There haven't been big demonstrations for many months, and it's hard to imagine with Arafat's current unpopularity that he'd be able to get Palestinians to come out now. Still, it's safe to say that the confrontation will continue to escalate, because that seems to be the only option that both sides can see. Each retaliation will be followed by another.