Supporters of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf rally in Islamabad.
Has there ever been an election campaign with so many anti-climaxes? A surprise ruling by Pakistan's Supreme Court Friday on President General Pervez Musharraf's eligibility to run for a second term technically threatened his bid to stay in power and had many Pakistanis scratching their head over what was going on in their country's power politics. The last few months have been rocked by controversy over Musharraf's eligibiity even as he feuded angrily with the judicial branch of government. Friday's ruling appeared to be another round of that tit-for-tat — though tempered by another long-running drama, Musharraf's budding alliance with his old nemesis, the exiled Benazir Bhutto.
On Friday, just one day before the polls, presiding Justice Javed Iqbal said that the election — which was to be held by an electoral college made up of the national and provincial assemblies — could take place as scheduled. However, it said that the winning candidate could not be named until the courts decide whether Musharraf is in fact an eligible candidate. According to the constitution, military officers are not allowed to run for political office. Thus, even though Musharraf, as expected, easily won the election on Saturday, it will not be until October 17, when a full court reconvenes to hear the petitions, that he will know whether or not he is allowed to take office.
Pundits termed the ruling "satanically subtle" in instant text messages announcing the results of the controversy-laden trial. But the court may simply have been giving deference to a former Supreme Court Justice who not only brought the current case against Musharraf's eligibility but was actually running for the presidency himself. (Last week, the courts ruled in favor of Musharraf's nomination, dismissing three petitions against it on technical grounds.)
But the delays posed by this "satanic subtlety" may also be giving the other half of the drama time to play out. The Supreme Court's ambiguous yellow light means "absolutely nothing," says Ayesha Tammy Haq, a lawyer and prominent political talk show host. That's because she believes that a long rumored power-sharing deal between Musharraf and Bhutto, the self-exiled two-time Prime Minister who fled Pakistan in 1999 under still-unanswered charges of corruption, is still on. Indeed, Musharraf was not opposed by Bhutto's powerful Pakistan People's Party (PPP) during Saturday's vote: the PPP simply abstained from voting. With other opposition parties boycotting, that meant that Musharraf received all but two or three of the votes cast, lending legitimacy to his election. In the meantime, Bhutto will get blanket amnesty for corruption charges leveled against her and her husband, Asif Zadari. On Thursday Musharraf told Dawn TV that while he had not forgotten about the corruption charges, "There is a greater need to bring together forces that believe in moderation to take on religious extremism," and that "there is no harm in engaging [Bhutto] in the dialogue process."
For the past few days Pakistani television talk shows and Internet chat rooms have been buzzing with details of incremental moves in the negotiations between the two politicians with all the breathless enthusiasm of fans obsessed with the on-again, off-again love affair of protagonists in a daytime drama. IT'S A DONE DEAL exclaimed one newspaper. OPTIMISTIC, BUT NO AGREEMENT YET, says another. MUSHARRAF AND BB MAKE IT AT LAST, says a third. A popular e-mail going around shows a photograph of Musharraf and Bhutto doctored to look as if they are the happy couple at a traditional Pakistani wedding ceremony. The Supreme Court ruling is just the latest plot twist in an ongoing drama. "This is a tale told by an idiot full of sound and fury signifying nothing," says Haq.
Shakespearian theatre this may be, but the political maneuverings of the capital Islamabad have import far beyond the Dunsinane-like nation of Pakistan. The U.S., which calls Musharraf its most important ally in the war on terror, has been quietly but forcefully pushing for a power sharing deal between the two politicians. Although Musharraf stood a good chance of winning the presidency without the PPP — his Pakistan Muslim League (Q) party has a slim majority in parliament — the tacit acquiescence of Bhutto's party lends the elections, and Musharraf's certain presidency, the democratic credentials necessary to garner continued international support for the war on terror currently being waged in Pakistan. Observers point out that Oct. 17, the day the courts decide on Musharraf's eligibility, is also the day that Bhutto begins her return to Pakistan from exile in Britain.
The White House has made no statement regarding the reconciliation accord announced on Thursday, other than to repeat its call for "free and fair" elections and that the deal is a "matter for the Pakistanis to decide," according to spokesman Gordon Johndroe.
Musharraf, whose popularity has been in free fall since he tried, and failed, to unseat a popular Supreme Court Justice last spring, has nothing to lose in this scenario. He has sworn to step down as Army Chief once elected President but he reserves the right to stay in uniform should he not be elected, an old threat of martial law exhumed by Friday's ruling. Musharraf has already reshuffled the top ranking generals to better ensure a loyal army corps ready to do his bidding even as a civilian President.
Bhutto, however, has built her following based on a tireless campaign against army rule. Her discussions with Musharraf have earned her the ire of party faithful who say she has sold out in order to save her own skin. "She's making a deal with a dictator," says Ali Nazar Shah, a schoolteacher from Larkana. Bhutto is aware of these allegations, but says that for the sake of Pakistan it is better to be practical. "We believe the nation should leave the past behind and look towards a better future," she said in a London press conference announcing the reconciliation deal.
It is unlikely that many of her followers will switch allegiances come parliamentary elections slated for January. Pakistanis tend to stay loyal to their parties, and while many may be disgusted with Bhutto for her deal making, they still support the moderate policies of her party. Some simply want to make the best of a bad situation. "This man [Musharraf] is not going to let go." Says Barkat Jafri, a mobile phone vendor in Bhutto's hometown of Larkana. " If she can negotiate a transition to democracy it's a good thing. It may weaken him, and then we can get rid of him as well."
Few Pakistanis could envision a PPP without a Bhutto at its helm. She inherited leadership of the party not long after her father's execution at the hands of military dictator Ayub Khan in 1979, and refused to relinquish power even when in exile. Since becoming Prime Minister in 1988, she has hopscotched into and out of power with archrivals Nawaz Sharif, the former Prime Minister who was ousted by military coup in 1999, and Musharraf. For the past 20 years those names have dominated the Pakistani political scene. "It really is like a soap opera," says Haq. "Year after year we still see the same faces, the same plot and the same kind of deal making." And it seems, the formulaic cliffhangers.