As a group of nuclear experts from the U.S., China and Russia wrap up their inspection of the North Korean reactor at Yongbyon this week, expectations are high that Dear Leader Kim Jong Il is serious — this time — about his commitment to give up its nuclear programs. "We hope it means that the North Korean leadership is making the strategic decision to denuclearize and join the international community," U.S. Ambassador to Seoul Alexander Vershbow told a security forum in Seoul Thursday.
Few must be as pleased with these developments as South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun. His administration deserves some credit for the current thaw after pleading repeatedly with Washington to engage the North — and by extension, for the warmer climate between Seoul and Pyongyang as well. "Inter-Korean relations are getting better because of the new détente between the US and North Korea," says Chun Moon In, a North Korean expert at Yonsei University in Seoul. Early next month Roh will meet Kim Jong Il in just the second high-level summit since the end of the Korean War. Roh has only a few months left in office: elections are less than 100 days away, and he is constitutionally barred from running again. A successful summit would also strengthen his role as a kingmaker, potentially giving candidates from his party a leg up. He clearly hopes warmer relations with the North will be the capstone of his political career.
Not everyone, however, is sure progress is being made. "Roh has maintained the pace set by Kim Dae Jung, but relations have not improved beyond this,' says Professor Ryoo Kihl Jae at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. Since former President Kim's historic inter-Korean summit in 2000, the two Koreas have continued to cooperate on two high profile projects: a tourism project at Mt Kumgan in the east and a light manufacturing facility, the Kaesong Industrial Complex, just north of the demilitarized zone. (Critics point out the projects are more symbolic in nature than anything elseand benefit the North far more than the South.) Seoul has also continued to ply Pyongyang with economic aid and participates in family reunions of relatives separated as a result of the Korean war, although relations soured when it joined in the international condemnation after Pyongyang detonated its first nuclear device last year. Still, with North Korea hard hit by floods and U.S.-led economic sanctions, Kim is no doubt looking for political and economic concessions from the rest of the world, and is astute enough to know good things will come if he appears reasonable. "Both sides, especially North Korea, are trying to create the impression of improved inter-Korean relations," says Andrei Lankov, a professor of North Korean studies at Kookmin University in Seoul — even if, as he notes, "it won't last long."
Roh's own brand of détente has taken some unusual turns in recent days. Earlier this month during a meeting at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Sydney, he tried to goad U.S. President George W. Bush into discussing a peace treaty with the North, which Bush would have none of. On his return to Seoul, Roh announced he would not bring up the North's nuclear program during his October summit with Kim as it would be akin to picking a fight, and reiterated that a peace treaty would be his first priority. Pyongyang-watchers were taken aback by these comments, noting it could be considered premature to push for a treaty until the North is further along on its denuclearization timetable. Some experts suggest Seoul may be afraid of losing its role in the peace initiative on the peninsula, now that Washington and Pyongyang are more amicable toward each other. "The Korean people want to contribute to a breakthrough,' says Ryoo.
But while polls say as many as 70 percent of South Koreans support the upcoming summit, many are tempering their enthusiasm. "They've had news about breakthroughs before and nothing happened," says Lankov. Perhaps they're getting fed up with making concessions to the North and getting little in return.