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Alkatiri's party, elected to government in 2002, has a dubious reputation. Former interior minister Rogerio Lobato is serving a seven-and-a-half-year jail term for arming a hit squad in the lead-up to last year's violence. Former resistance fighter Colonel Vincente de Conceicão Railos, the man who blew the whistle on Lobato's plot, this week told TIME that he knows of at least 28 weapons still in the hands of a militant pro-Fretilin group that has threatened to conduct assassinations if Fretilin is excluded from government. "They want to cause instability. They go look for political leaders to assassinate. They have the experience from the resistance," says Railos, surrounded by bodyguards as he sits on the porch of his home. "I have told the President [Ramos-Horta] this information, but they still have not done anything about it. The weapons are still there."
Railos points to other worrying developments, including a build-up of weapons in Balibo and rumors that a large quantity of drugs has been brought from West Timor, a province of Indonesia, allegedly to embolden and energize refugee-camp youths. But the colonel's claims have been dismissed by the Indian head of the U.N. Mission in East Timor, Atul Khare, who believes Ramos-Horta's eventual decision will provoke only minor incidents. "What I do believe is that with our presence, isolated and sporadic incidents can be prevented from turning into a major conflagration of violence of the type which occurred last year," he says. "Police cannot prevent each and every incident. Police cannot stop people from throwing stones."
Khare, who controls a force of around 1,600 international police, sees no evidence that any of the political parties have been inciting violence. "It has had no connection so far," he says. "Violence is an accompaniment of the unexpressed frustration of desires of several people who find themselves disenfranchised and disempowered, and feel that they have not yet received the dividend that should have gone to them from the process of restoration of national independence. What I can believe is that the political leaders have been assisting and will continue to assist in keeping their supporters in control."
Dili residents who have to drive by the refugee camp at the airport might disagree. Minutes after the new Parliament elected Coalition member and PD head Fernando Lasama de Araujo as its president, youths again swarmed out of the camp and began throwing stones at vehicles and yelling pro-Fretilin slogans. U.N. police and more than 20 Australian soldiers rushed to the camp to force the protestors back inside, where they screamed obscenities. Similar outbursts took place near the Fretilin headquarters in Comoro.
Despite Khare's claims, U.N. police, who occupy the front line in the fight to stop the violence, suspect a link between the violence and political parties. Head of the Comoro police post Joel Doria says his men have received numerous allegations of a connection between Fretilin and the simmering violence. During the election campaign, he says, police were arresting pro-Fretilin troublemakers and finding $30 to $100 cash in their pockets — improbably large sums for jobless refugees. "We request them to stay in the camp, but every time there is a political event they go out into the street and create problems," he says. "We have the information but we can't make the connection with evidence."
Doria, a veteran police officer who is more used to hunting extremists in his native Philippines than political agitators in East Timor, brings up on his computer screen photos of regular offenders and rock-throwers from the camps. "See, here they are causing problems on the streets of Dili. Then here are the same ones gathering at the Fretilin headquarters in Comoro," he says, switching to photos taken on the same day in front of the Fretilin building. "Why are they there? What is there for them?" Doria notes that over the past week, loud music has been blaring out of the Fretilin HQ at all hours. "That gives them an excuse to have a lot of people there. They are pretending to have a party. But really they are waiting to cause problems." Many locals agree with his assessment. Street vendors say they've learned to expect trouble when they see local youths using their cell phones. "They have up to $50 credit on their phone cards. How can they afford it?" asks one.
PSD head Mario Carrascalão says his party has the names of three individuals, linked to Fretilin, who they believe order the refugees to cause trouble. "We have given their names to police. They are receiving money and drinks from senior people related to Fretilin leaders," says Carrascalão, whose car was attacked by stone-throwing Fretilin supporters near the airport refugee camp on July 30. "But to this point we have heard nothing about them being investigated." He has received numerous threats of violence. "Today, for instance, I got a short message saying they are going to burn Dili Hospital if Fretilin does not govern," he says. "That is terrorism." Carrascalão has concerns that U.N. and local security officials will not be proactive enough to prevent injuries: "The police handle it, but only after things have started. They only come after the victims are already there."
Out on the streets, Dili residents like de Oliveira are nervous. "I have a friend who overhears a group of Fretilin supporters at the refugee camp near the city having a meeting," he says. "They said they had a plan: that when the decision is made, they will burn all the shops in Dili."