Freedom Postponed for Kosovo

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Damir Sagolj / Reuters

Albanians march the streets of the capital Pristina in a protest calling for a referendum June 30, 2007.

They have bought the fireworks to celebrate their first Independence Day, but Kosovar Albanians' dreams are once again being deferred. Repeated attempts to persuade Serbia, and its key ally Russia, to agree to a U.N. sponsored independence plan for the Balkan province have failed. Now, despite promises this spring that the plan would be approved in May, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Dan Fried has told Kosovar leaders that they may now have to wait until 2008 before their dream is fulfilled. Nor is that a sure thing. Kosovo's Prime Minister and former rebel commander Agim Ceku barely contained his frustration. He demanded an "exact calendar, an exact date and a clear way forward" on the question. "We prefer a diplomatic road," he said earlier. "But if we do not see hope, certainty, any efforts, we will be forced to act." In a report delivered Monday to the U.N. Security Council, Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon warned that eight years of efforts to find a peacful solution in the province could "unravel" if the question is put off too long.

Kosovo's ethnic Albanians, who make up more than 90% of the province's population, have been pushing for full independence from Serbia since NATO bombers ousted Serb security forces from the province back in 1999. The ethnic violence and resulting NATO action saw some 10,000 deaths, including military casualties. Earlier this year, U.S. and European leaders said they hoped to win U.N. security council approval for a "supervised independence" plan by May. Under the plan, drawn up by the Finnish envoy, Martti Ahtisaari, the province will cease to be a part of Serbia but will still fall under the supervision of international administrators — and a significant foreign peacekeeping contingent — in order to ensure the security of local Serbs and other minorities who have in the past been the targets of violence.

It has been impossible, however, to get the consensus required to implement the plan. In recent weeks, the U.S. and its European allies have revised the proposed resolution to put before the Security Council three times, but have yet to satisfy Russian objections. Neither a meeting of the G8 group of industrialized nations in Germany last month nor the recent summit between the U.S. and Russian Presidents in Kennebunkport, Maine succeeded in breaking the deadlock. Diplomats now believe that if the resolution were brought to the Security Council for a vote, Russia would veto it. The Russian foreign affairs minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters this weekend that a solution must not be imposed by the U.N. but emerge from an agreement between Serbia and the Kosovar Albanians of the province. Said he: "Any other decision cannot make it through the Security Council." Russia is reportedly concerned, among other things, that the move would encourage separatist movements in other parts of the world, including its own backyard.

As a result, some Kosovo Albanians are demanding that the country unilaterally declare independence. U.N. administrators and the estimated 16,000 peacekeepers in the province fear a repeat of deadly riots in March 2004 that targeted foreigners (as well as minority Serbs and their monuments) if full independence is put off too long. For now the U.S. is telling Kosovo Albanians that their time will come. They are urging Serbian leaders to give up their opposition to the plan in exchange for accelerating membership talks to enter the European Union (Serbia wants to grant the province autonomy but not full independence.) European diplomats have raised the possibility of renewing "proximity" talks, starting in September, between Kosovo Albanian and Serbian leaders from Belgrade — thus dealing with part of Russia's requirement. (The two sides, however, have already spent 14 months in inconclusive talks prior to the publication of Ahtisaari's plan.) Under another proposal, to be decided on later this month, talks may be convened somewhere in Europe that would include all interested parties, similar to the 1995 meetings in Dayton, Ohio that ended the Bosnian war.

In Pristina, meanwhile, Agron Bajrami, editor of the daily Koha Ditore acknowledged that frustration is growing. "I don't expect any major unrest this summer, " he said. But if elections are held as expected in November, and there is still no clear movement on the question, "even the mainstream parties will be tempted to adopt extreme strategies." Then it won't just be fireworks on display.