Ukraine's Crisis of Democracy

Victor Yushchenko may have overcome Russian political interference and dioxin poisoning to win the 2004 Orange Revolution in dramatic fashion, but he may now be losing the political war of attrition to hold on to power in Ukraine. On Monday night, Yushchenko, as President of Ukraine, ordered the dissolution of his country's single-chamber parliament, the Rada, to make way for elections in late May. However, the Rada, dominated by his opponents, refused to follow the order and the controversy is now headed for the country's Constitutional Court. In almost theatrical fashion, the man standing to benefit from it all is Yushchenko's nemesis, Victor Yanukovych, the man defeated in what the West hailed as a great victory for democracy. Ironically, Yanukovych has used all the instruments of Ukrainian politics and democracy to undo Yushchenko's authority.

Kiev has been teeming with mass rallies and counter-rallies for the last three days. In the mirror image of the Fall of 2004, the pro-Yanukovych tent city is rapidly being deployed around the Rada and Cabinet buildings. But instead of orange, the dominant colors are the blue and white of Yanukovych's Party of the Regions. Defenders of the Orange Revolution are being mustered up as well, but under a divided leadership. Russian TV stations are sinisterly prophesying "the coming massive bloodshed in Ukraine." Kremlin leaders have no love for Yushchenko and his erstwhile ally Yuliya Tymoshenko; and it believes bloody clashes in Kiev would only serve to undermine further Yushchenko's hold on power.

Since their great victory, the liberal, democratic and pro-Western Orange politicians have squandered their enormous political and ethical capital by squabbling for influence and positions amid mutual charges of corruption. Tymoshenko, the Orange revolution's driving force, became Prime Minister, but her own Presidential ambitions intimidated Yushchenko. The allies had a falling-out when Yushchenko fired her from the job.

In the meantime, Yanukovych reforged himself via his huge business interests and with the help of American political spinmeisters who played up the shortcomings of the Orange Revolution. In the March 2006 parliamentary elections, Yanukovych made a spectacular comeback, his party carrying 32% of the vote. The predominantly Russian-speaking Ukrainian East, alarmed by Yushchenko's pro-Western politices and the Russian threat of steep fuel price hikes, threw its support his way.

The 2006 election coincided with political reform, which transferred considerable powers from the office of the President to the Rada and the Rada-nominated Prime Minister. After controversial parliamentary maneuvers and alliance building, Yanukovych became Prime Minister and immediately set out to encroach on the President's diminishing powers. Yanukovych has purged Yushchenko's nominees from his own cabinet. The Rada and the Cabinet now oppose the President's policies, aimed at joining the European Union and NATO, playing on fears of joining the Western alliance fanned by Russian propaganda. The ever looser Orange alliance of Tymoshenko and Yushchenko was being abandoned by parliamentarians, who were defecting to Yanukovychs better funded and organized Party of the Regions and its coalition partners. That coalition now has 258 votes against the Orange alliance's 202. If it musters 300 deputies in the Rada, it will have enough to rewrite the constitution and abolish the Presidency.

The prospect of that led to Yushchenko's decision to dissolve the Rada. Tymoshenko offered to patch up relations in the face of a common and rising enemy. But it may be too late. Even a Constitutional Court ruling may not be enough to heal the rift between two democratically elected but violently opposed branches of Ukraines government.