Lowering Expectations in Iraq

Violence in Baghdad is down in the opening weeks of troop build-up and a new security plan. But the official position of the U.S. military is guarded — even wary. After years of small steps forward followed by giant steps back, Americans in Iraq know better than to raise expectations.

Rear Admiral Mark Fox, a U.S. military spokesman, said Wednesday that the level of violence was "unacceptable," and that violence would continue. Noting that four more Iraqi battalions were scheduled to arrive in Baghdad in the next two weeks, he reiterated the American mantra that the new security plan is "an operation that will take months to unfold."

There is good reason for caution in evaluating the drop in violence. In the wake of Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al Sadr's decision to rein in his Mehdi Army militia, the number of "extra-judicial killings" in Baghdad has declined dramatically. "Extra-judicial killing" is a clinical euphemism for death squad murders that often begin with the abduction and torture of the victim, and end with the mutilated body dumped in the street as a warning to others. It has been a popular tactic as Shi'ite militias clear Sunnis from contested neighborhoods.

But Iraqi civilians and American soldiers say that while the militia has become more discreet, it is still slowly forcing Sunnis from their homes — a process that the Shi'ite-dominated security forces still seem unwilling or unable to stop. Sadr and his allies may be calculating that, by stopping the worst outrages, they can accomplish their larger goals without becoming targets of the American military.

Sunni insurgent violence, on the other hand, remains as public and vicious as ever. On Wednesday a car bomb killed 10 people in Baghdad. Hundreds have been killed in a wave of bombings targeting markets, universities, restaurants — anywhere Shi'ites gather and are vulnerable.

Fox said one of the missions of the Iraqi security forces is to place barriers to block car bombs from reaching their targets. But in four years of ferocious and often ingenious terrorist warfare, Sunni insurgents have always found ways to evade such defenses.

They recently proved they do not need car bombs to perpetrate mass killings. Last week a female suicide bomber wearing a bomb-laden vest blew herself up in a crowd of Shi'ite college students, murdering dozens. In response, an angry Sadr on Sunday seemed to withdraw his support from the security plan. Aides later said he had been misunderstood.

But as the plan proceeds in the coming weeks and months, repeated Sunni provocations will test the patience of Shi'ites and the militias they look to for protection.

The military's guarded tone makes sense. While public opinion in the U.S. matters, public opinion in Iraq is vital. And, as Fox said Wednesday, "the perceptions of security will change when the reality of security changes." And while the level of violence has declined, the fundamental dynamic of Iraq's sectarian war remains unchanged.