A constant refrain by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during last summer's war in Lebanon was that Israel could not be expected to return to "the status quo ante," in which it lived under threat from a heavily armed Hizballah across its northern border. And yet, the signs are unmistakable that the status quo was not significantly altered by Israel's military operation and the truce that followed. Neither the U.N. force nor the Lebanese Army appears likely to even try and disarm Hizballah, which has agreed simply to refrain from openly bearing arms in the border zone. Now Israeli officials, Western diplomats and Arab sources hostile to Hizballah and its allies are all warning that the radical Shi'ite movement is actually replenishing its missile arsenal with the help of Iran and Syria.
The persistence of that threat on its northern border remains intolerable to the Israeli security establishment — particularly in light of mounting tension between Israel and Iran, Hizballah's sponsor, over that country's nuclear program. And that's why Israeli military officers and Hizballah sources in Beirut say both sides are preparing for a new shooting war, which could come sooner rather than later.
Hizballah is currently seeking to topple the U.S.-backed government of Fouad Siniora in Beirut, which signed off on the U.N. resolution requiring that the movement disarm. The Iran-backed militia plainly has no intention of giving up its weapons, and Israeli intelligence sources fear that it could be emboldened to begin openly resuming military activities in the south, which raises the prospect of a new Israeli offensive. Some fear Hizballah might even deliberately provoke another bruising round by kidnapping a few more Israeli soldiers — though Hizballah chief Haassan Nasrallah admitted he was stunned by the Israeli onslaught last summer and may act more cautiously.
The Israelis are also aware that if Israel or the U.S. launched a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities to prevent the Islamic Republic from acquiring the means to build nuclear weapons, Hizballah would almost certainly be enlisted to retaliate against Israel. Ties between Tehran and Hizballah are tight — Iran hand-picked Nasrallah, then a young cleric, to lead Hizballah — and Iran would want a return on the hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of rockets and funds for social and military spending it has invested in Hizballah over a quarter century. While the U.S. remains committed for now to a diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff, the Israeli leadership has little faith that the Iranians will back down. And with Israelis having been told by their leaders that the Iranian nuclear program constitutes a grave and immediate existential danger to the Jewish State, the domestic pressure on Israel to act may be growing.
Hizballah officials in Beirut say the movement has no intention of starting a new brawl with Israel. They say a new war would most likely be sparked by Israel launching a preemptive strike against Hizballah defenses, or by targeting its leaders. Nasrallah is still in hiding to avoid a possible Israeli attack, although Israel's willingness to kill him seems lately to have dimmed, according to Western diplomats in Beirut.
Since their last bout ended in August, both Israel and Hizballah have been gearing up for a possible Round 2. Israeli, Arab and Lebanese sources hostile to Hizballah told TIME that the organization has been busy restocking its arsenal with help from Iran and Syria. Hizballah has taken delivery of Syrian-made Katyusha missiles with a range of almost 60 miles, able to strike the Israeli port of Haifa and maybe the northern outskirts of Tel Aviv. The Israeli military estimates that Hizballah's arsenal now has over 20,000 short-range missiles and hundreds of medium-range ones. This arms pipeline starts in Iran, where shipments are usually loaded onto trains as disguised cargo, and wend their way across Turkey to Syria. From there, they are taken over the mountain passes to Lebanon by trucks, often smuggled under loads of vegetables. Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers, working from a military base near Damascus, direct this arms flow, these sources claim.
Meanwhile, to replace the hundreds of fighters fallen in the last conflict, Hizballah is recruiting eager new volunteers; the best of them are heading to Iran for further war training, according to Israeli sources and Western diplomats in Beirut. Hizballah leaders are also trying to figure out how to do a better job of hiding their long-range missiles; nearly all of their last supply was destroyed by Israeli aircraft in the opening days of the war.
For its part, the Israeli military is strengthening its border defenses and trying to figure out how to crush a guerrilla enemy that fires rockets from deep underground and uses villages and towns as a combat shield. The Israeli air force is retooling its planes for new, U.S.-made 600-pound 'bunker-buster' bombs. Israel also found out that its vaunted Merkava tanks were vulnerable to missile attack, and experts are now experimenting with a new radar device that tracks and shoots incoming projectiles in mid-air. And the Israelis are keeping an eye out for goat-herders and donkeys loaded with suspicious objects.
The irony, of course, is that Israel set out to destroy Hizballah last summer and ended up making its leader, Nasrallah, only stronger. In Beirut, Lebanese politicians fret that it's only because Hizballah came out of the war with Israel relatively unscathed that Nasrallah is attempting his current power play of bringing down the Siniora government. Given the current tumult in the Middle East, the outcome of a second fight to the finish for Israel could prove even more unpredictable — and possibly disastrous.