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All of which means that the ability of both Syria and Iran to help bring an end to the violence in Iraq is dubious. A better question might be whether either country would even be willing to do so. Supporters of negotiations argue that Damascus and Tehran have a compelling interest to seek stability in Iraq, in part because a civil war would send thousands of refugees streaming into Syria and Iran. But if that's the case, why would either country want to see the U.S. leave Iraq, since U.S. troops remain the last thin line of defense against all-out chaos? Whatever advantages Syria and Iran might derive from a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq are outweighed by the benefits they reap from keeping the U.S. wallowed in the mire: in Syria's case, a free hand to continue meddling in Lebanon; and in Iran's, a window to develop a nuclear program without fear of a U.S. military reprisal. And even if Damascus and Tehran were to agree to assume some kind of role in stabilizing Iraq, what would we want them to do? Go to Baghdad as peacekeepers? If you think Iraq's Sunnis are angry now, wait until the Iranians show up.
None of this is to say we shouldn't TRY to negotiate with Iran and Syria. Talking to our enemies can bring ancillary benefits, by forcing such regimes to moderate their rhetoric and behavior and projecting a more appealing image of ourselves to their citizens. As Clinton argued in her speech Tuesday, negotiating with opaque actors such as Iran also "lets you assess whos making decisions, what their stated and unstated goals might be." Engaging Iran and Syria could lead to breakthroughs in other areas where those countries' cooperation is needed, such as disarming Hizballah in Lebanon and forging a settlement between Israel and the Palestinians.
Those are worthy goals -- but they won't help the U.S. get out of Iraq. That will be achieved only when American leaders admit that trying to save Iraq is no longer worth the price being paid in American life. There may be virtue in talking to Iran and Syria. But only we can exctricate ourselves from the mess we've created.
