Pakistan Braces for a Backlash After Taliban Raid

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Peace talks had been scheduled to begin Monday between tribal elders, militants and the military in pursuit of an agreement on the lines of the one concluded in September with militants in North Waziristan, in which they pledged to stop cross-border activities and attacks on government forces in exchange for those forces withdrawing from the area.

"Any kind of peace deal is now out of the question," says Talat Masood, a retired Lieutenant General who now works as a military analyst in Islamabad. "Pakistan is sliding into the same situation as we have in the southern regions of Afghanistan. Musharraf is losing control." He points out that the attacks will boost the political fortunes of the conservative Islamist opposition parties, and could even cost Musharraf support among moderates. Siraj ul-Haq, a finance minister for the North-West Frontier Province, has resigned in protest at what he termed an "insane attack," calling for nationwide protests. "People are very angry," says Bajaur resident Wahid Shah. "People are protesting against America and against Musharraf. It's very tense over here."

But General Sultan says the attack was necessary to prepare the ground for fruitful peace talks. "Some of these militants are a hard nut to crack," he says. "They may not come easily to negotiation. We need to show them what is at risk." The agreement in North Waziristan, he points out, was also preceded by several months of military activity — in which the Pakistani military lost some 800 men, about the same number of militants it was able to capture during the operation. But few outside of Pakistan have hailed the Waziristan deal as a success. NATO leaders in Afghanistan, for example, have reported a significant uptick in Taliban attacks since it was signed.

Even in Pakistan, many fear that the military withdrawal from the region has only consolidated the militants' power. "A peace deal alone is not enough," says analyst Masood. "It will take 10 to 15 years to transform the mind-set of these people. You need to offer them an alternative paradigm, give them something to live for." In a region with few roads, little infrastructure and nominal government presence, however, it is nearly impossible to offer a viable alternative to the region's militant traditions. Local leaders are fiercely resistant to any kind of government intervention, and in many areas have set up parallel courts to administer their own brutal form of justice, just as the Taliban did in Afghanistan.

The madrassa attack will likely harden local resistance to any kind of deal with the Pakistani government, says Masood. "Even if they did kill 100 militants instead of madrassa students, all they have achieved is creating another 10,000 militants. This war will not be won by military means."

—With reporting by Ghulam Hasnain/ Karachi, Talat Hussain/ Islamabad and Rahimullah Yusufsai/ Peshawar