Trying to Put the Squeeze on North Korea

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North Korea continued talking tough Wednesday, suggesting that if international pressure continues, it will conduct a second nuclear test. (That, of course, could be the cynical spin on a second test that may already be in the works.) But North Korea is also playing a diplomatic game, stressing that it is "ready for both dialogue and confrontation." It has blamed the U.S. for the collapse of the six-party process, and insisted that it remains ready to return to those talks if existing sanctions are dropped. To the extent that it indicates a willingness to revive the basic deal discussed at those talks, that could put diplomatic pressure on the U.S.

Dropping sanctions, of course, is the last thing anyone has in mind right now. Japan has already implemented some new ones of its own, cutting all imports from North Korea (mushrooms, coal and shellfish) and prohibiting North Korean vessels from docking at its ports. Although the U.S. has no trade or similar ties with North Korea, it could also use its dominant role in the international banking system to tighten the squeeze on North Korean funds imposed by the financial sanctions adopted a year ago. But the appetite of others to follow suit appears to be limited.

The U.S. may also be struggling to get its way at the Security Council because of doubts over the wisdom with which the Bush Administration has handled North Korea until now. Its refusal to talk directly with the North Korean regime over the past six years is seen in Beijing and Seoul as partly responsible for the failure of the existing diplomatic process to prevent North Korea testing a nuclear weapon, and pressure for the U.S. to reverse its refusal to talk directly to Pyongyang continues. U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan on Wednesday reiterated the call for direct talks. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's rejection of such talks on the grounds that the U.S. alone lacks leverage with North Korea is unlikely to impress those who see offering Pyongyang security guarantees as the key to achieving its disarmament. The U.S., after all, and not China or South Korea, is the country that North Korea most views as a mortal threat.

So, while the Security Council this week will certainly punish North Korea for its nuclear provocation, the likelihood is that such punishment will be measured with a view to restarting the six-party process. The end game, as ever, remains persuading North Korea to disarm in exchange for a package of political, economic and security incentives.