Nobel Winner Is Never A Solid Bet

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The overall amount wagered on the prize varies between each betting house, but Mark Worwood, who sets odds for Centrebet said he expets the online bookmaker to hold as much as $22,000 on the Nobel Peace Prize alone. But he added that he expects the vast majority of the bets to go on Ahtisaari, Yudhoyono, and the Free Aceh Movement itself instead of celebrities like Geldof and Bono.

In past years, weve put them in as nominees because people just wanted to back them, but now were not holding $100 on those blokes, he said People are now doing their research and they are not going for the name candidates.

There are several others who have been getting odds, and quite possibly being bet on, but they are not likely to have received a nomination; these include talk show host Oprah Winfrey, who is getting 501-1 odds from Centrebet and President Bush, whom they give 1001-1 odds.

But those who watch the bookmakers say their guesses are no better than anyone elses and although there are more likely candidates, there is no way to guess the outcome of the awards. When it comes to the Nobel prize, I dont think the bookmakers have a clue, said James Millman, spokesman for the British odds analysis and comparison service readaBet.com. Nobody knows whats going on behind the scenes, they just read whats in the press.

You can make all the greatest arguments in the world and it might make perfect sense, but then they might pick someone completely random, he said. Geldof and Bono are third and fourth favorites. They will be high in the betting, because everyone knows their names, but how could they come to the conclusion that Geldof has a better chance than Bono?

The prize, in fact, is no stranger to controversy. In years past, awards have been bestowed upon figures that raised eyebrows, like the 2002 award to former president Jimmy Carter, which was seen by some as a snub to President Bush as he responded to 9/11. Other awards have even caused question of political favoritism, for example the much criticized choice of Henry Kissinger in 1973 for his role in ending the Vietnam War.

Despite having no real inclination on who the Nobel Peace Prize winner will be, Millman said the bookmakers post the odds, not surprisingly, simply to draw attention — and money. Its a bit of an interest, its good publicity for them, Millman said. The bookmakers are having a laugh and not taking it that seriously.