The 35 member states of the IAEA board are debating a resolution urging Iran to halt the uranium conversion activities it re-started this week. They are divided over the wording of the resolution, particularly over any threats to enforce it, although everyone seems agreed on the need to warn Iran against continuing on its present path. If Iran keeps on converting yellowcake uranium to gas, the matter may be referred to the UN Security Council, which has the authority to order Iran to suspend its enrichment activities and impose sanctions. That decision won't come for several weeks though.
Why have the negotiations between Iran and the Europeans, which involved offering Tehran economic and technological incentives to permanently refrain from enrichment, broken down?
Since the election of its new hardline president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran has become increasingly strident over its nuclear ambitions. Ahmadinejad dismissed the European offer as an 'insult,' precisely because it required Iran to renounce the right it enjoys under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) to enrich uranium for energy purposes. Tehran's action this week ended its year-long voluntary suspension of uranium conversion activities. Its top representative to the IAEA was combative yesterday, saying that on the anniversary of the bomb that destroyed Nagasaki, the U.S. was in "no position whatsoever to preach to anyone about what they should or should not do in their nuclear program."
Although the NPT gives Iran the right to enrich uranium for energy purposes, the Europeans and the U.S. believe Tehran forfeited that right by concealing part of its nuclear program from IAEA scrutiny for two decades. Although the U.S. was initially skeptical of Europe's diplomatic approach, it subsequently backed that effort. And now, Britain, France and Germany are clearly losing patience with Iran. Ahmadinejad has said he wants negotiations to continue without preconditions, but if Iran insists on continuing its conversion work the talks will likely end.
So, what comes next?
The U.S. wants to raise pressure on Tehran by referring the matter to the UN Security Council for action, but the EU and others are reluctant to agree because they fear this will accomplish little, and could scuttle any attempts at a peaceful solution. In addition, countries such as Malaysia, Argentina and Brazil that have their own peaceful uranium enrichment programs do not want to put those programs at risk by sanctioning Iran for activities permitted under the NPT. That could make it difficult for the 35 members of the IAEA to achieve the consensus necessary to refer Iran to the Security Council.
Nor is it clear that the Security Council would take action. China and Russia, which have extensive economic interests in Iran, could veto sanctions. And some diplomats fear that trying to force Iran's hand would backfire by prompting Tehran to withdraw from the system of UN inspections and other NPT obligations as did North Korea two years ago. Right now, Iran may be playing hardball, but unlike North Korea it is still playing the game.
Ironically, Iran's decision to begin conversion of yellowcake uranium to uranium hexafluoride gas this week does not bring it significantly closer to a bomb. Iranian scientists have not actually begun enriching uranium. Arms control experts predict that it will take at least until the end of the decade before Iran is in a position to produce a bomb.
Tehran has, over the past two years, repeatedly pushed the IAEA and the Europeans to the brink before backing down. The latest moves could be the beginning of cooperation with the West over its nuclear program, but they could also be more brinkmanship. The next few weeks should tell.