Jamil Hamad: According to my sources in the Palestinian Authority (PA), there is a sense of anger and betrayal — although perhaps you have to measure that against the way they were treated by the Clinton administration. There's now a feeling that the U.S. administration is abandoning the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, trying to stay away from it. They see the Bush administration betting on Egypt and Jordan to pressure the PA to denounce terror and resume security coordination with Israel. But according to my source, Washington is being too optimistic.
If Egypt tried to pressure Arafat to make concessions, that would endanger Egypt's position in the Arab and Islamic world. Egypt is not willing to take that risk, particularly given its internal equation. Egypt has to consider not only pressure from the U.S. and Israel, but also internal pressure from their rising Islamic opposition. And the internal political dynamic is very important in shaping Egyptian policy on Palestinians and other Arab issues. So the Americans are not reading the internal situation in the Arab world vis-à-vis their ability to persuade Arafat. Still, Arafat feels isolated now, and Arafat is looking for a way out of the situation.
So for he's calling for the intifada to be intensified. Will that be his way out?
That may be a good slogan when you're talking to the angry masses, but in real politics it simply means getting into a direct confrontation with the Israelis. Until now, Sharon has treated the PA and Arafat as a rival rather than enemy, but the Israeli leader is under pressure to deal with Arafat as an enemy — and that could be a disaster for Arafat. For the last 10 years, he counted on the American fire brigade to come and put out the fire, but that's not going to happen. The Arab world is incapable of doing too much for him. I think he'll find himself searching for a face-saving formula to indirectly silence Palestinian guns.
But we're heading into a very complex situation. The Israelis are united now in their mistrust of Arafat. And that creates a great difficulty for resuming negotiations. And among ordinary Palestinians, there is a great deal of anger toward the Israelis and the Americans because the suffering under the Israeli closure of Palestinian areas is very intense. So for Arafat to try and stop the violence, he will demand a reward, something he can take to the Palestinian people and say, here is the prize for stopping the violence. The name of the game in the Middle East is if you want Arafat to do something, you have to do something for him.