Europe's meat crisis is traumatizing society
J.F.O. McAllister: Almost by definition, any change of policy is a concession of ineptitude. Today during prime minister's question time in Parliament, Tony Blair conceded that this thing was far bigger than anyone had anticipated, and that there had been a lot more movement of cattle and sheep than previously suspected during the period when the disease had been incubating. He was saying that no matter what the government had done, nobody had any idea of how widespread the outbreak would become. But, of course, at the beginning of the crisis he had been saying the government had the problem under control. Clearly, this hasn't happened, and there have been bottlenecks every step of the way.
Latest polling figures show that around 70 percent of people in Britain disapprove of the government's handling of the crisis, so Blair's in a difficult bind. It's not yet clear whether they're going to go ahead with inoculation, although they've been granted permission by the E.U. to go ahead. Many people in these farming communities prefer the idea of slaughter to vaccination, because current technology doesn't properly discriminate between the presence of antibodies as a result of infection and the presence of antibodies as a result of inoculation. That could mean that Britain would lose up to $1.5 billion in lost exports to countries that won't accept vaccinated animals. Still, that may not be too heavy a loss to bear in comparison to the losses of slaughtered animals and the disruption of the countryside. After all, tourism is a far bigger earner for Britain than agriculture. So the government is contemplating inoculating animals in areas surrounding points where the disease has occurred, to create a firebreak. But they first want to persuade the farmers that this is the right course of action.
Tony Blair faces reelection in the spring. How has his handling of the crisis affected his chances at the polls?
Despite the high disapproval ratings and the fact that consumer confidence is down some 20 points, polls show that it's unlikely to significantly affect Blair's chances of reelection. That's because the opposition is not seen as credible. Labor has a lead of more than 20 points in the polls, and although it'll be a lot closer than that on election day, it's almost inconceivable that the Tories could win. Still, the crisis will probably prompt Blair to stick by the May 3 election day, so as to avoid giving the Conservatives more time to make themselves look credible.
Coming on the heels of the mad cow disease crisis, how has the foot-and-mouth outbreak affected British eating habits?
There's a significant shift toward vegetarianism, obviously. Polls show that some 20 percent of the population is now seriously contemplating vegetarianism, and restaurants are turning largely toward chicken and fish. This outbreak may shift attitudes a lot more sharply than the mad cow issue did. That initially brought down beef consumption by about 20 percent, but it soon recovered its old levels. But this foot-and-mouth outbreak may prompt a more significant and long-lasting move away from meat.
These images of a mass slaughter of animals obviously present the society with a very traumatic picture of the source of its food. Is it possible to discern a psychological impact?
Yes, these images of a kind of animal holocaust have generated a lot of unease. And of course you have to confront the reality that all of these animals would have been slaughtered anyway, at some point, to get them to your dinner table. So it's certainly making people think about what and how they eat. For the farming communities, the trauma has been the deepest. They're paralyzed, depressed. Suicides are up. By some estimates, almost one third of all livestock farmers will quit after this. Farmers are a tiny proportion of the British population, but England feels very connected to the land in a kind of vestigial sense. So the impact of this crisis on the land has a psychological impact on people way beyond the farming communities. It's awful, and it's getting worse.