Although he won't be there, Saddam Hussein will dominate the summit
TIME.com: All the power players in the Middle East turn their attention tomorrow to Jordan, where representatives of all Arab governments are to attend a major Arab League summit. What can we expect from the summit on the region's two primary crises — Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
Scott MacLeod: Symbolically, the states attending the summit will say that the Palestinians are the primary focus, partly because that's an issue on which they'll find it easy to agree. But the most important thing happening at the summit is redefining the Arab world's relationship with Iraq. Over the last year, in particular, Iraq has made a very aggressive effort to rehabilitate itself in the Arab world. They've lobbied the Arab street, highlighting the conditions of ordinary Iraqis under sanctions. And they've also given high-profile support to the Palestinian cause during the intifada, which has helped their image on the Arab streets. Today you won't find an Arab leader who would oppose easing sanctions against Iraq. Saddam has basically won the p.r. battle over sanctions in the Arab world, and to some extent in the wider world as well.
Presumably, though, there's considerable debate over how to ease sanctions, and which sanctions to maintain. The U.S. has been pushing recently for modifications to the sanctions regime designed to tighten controls on access to military equipment, while lifting most economic sanctions. Will this approach win Arab support?
The summit is going to debate a lot of the specifics, but Arab leaders are being driven to lift sanctions both by strong Arab public opinion against sanctions and by economic factors. A lot of Arab countries stand to gain if sanctions are eased, giving them greater access to trade with Iraq in lean times. But most Arab regimes also don't trust Saddam, and some, such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, are adamant that if sanctions are to be lifted, Iraq must pay a price — in some form of apology to Kuwait and undertaking to never again invade. But Iraq is playing hardball, insisting that the ending of sanctions is a separate question from its relationship with Kuwait. So the Arab League leaders are going into the summit at a bit of an impasse over how to handle easing the sanctions.
No matter how the summit fine-tunes its resolutions in search of compromise, it's worth noting that Iraq has made important inroads against sanctions and in getting back to the center of Arab politics. The Saudis and Kuwait are actually on the defensive against Iraqi pressure going into this summit. Still, U.N. sanctions, which are tied to weapons inspections, will remain in place regardless of what transpires at the Arab League. So Saddam may be moving around quite a bit and making some noise in what the Americans like to call his "box," but he's a long way from breaking out of it.
The new American approach may succeed, largely because the Americans have now come around to what most Arab governments have been saying for some years — that comprehensive sanctions are hurting ordinary Iraqis but are not helping overthrow Saddam, and that they're giving him ammunition for his propaganda war. The position that economic sanctions that hurt the people rather than the regime should be lifted will be a point of consensus between mainstream Arab opinion and the U.S. But a crucial test remains to what extent Syria and Jordan will continue to tolerate smuggling, because right now Arab economies are hurting and there's competition to be the main conduit for smuggling to Iraq.
What about the U.S. policy of intensifying efforts to overthrow Saddam?
America's Arab allies have made it clear that this talk of regime change has got to stop, and the bombing of Iraq to penalize it for this or that infraction has also got to stop. They want a more toned-down approach. There is some recognition in Washington now that the U.S. has lost the battle to overthrow Saddam. It may happen, but it can't be ordained. And with it has come the recognition that keeping Saddam in a box may be a useful end in itself, particularly if it can be done without alienating Arab opinion.
What can we expect from the Arab League on the Israeli-Palestinian question?
They'll go through the motions of endorsing the intifada, calling on Israel to lift its siege of Palestinian areas, probably also calling for international protection of Palestinian civilians. The only controversy around the Palestinian issue is the fact that only a tiny fraction of the $1 billion promised to the Palestinians by the last Arab League summit has been delivered — in large part because of concern over corruption in Arafat's administration. They'll probably find a way around this by releasing the money in monthly tranches, in order to allow for close scrutiny of how it's spent.