Macedonian citizens wait in a queue for Greek visas in front of the embassy
It was relatively quiet today on all fronts. There was some shelling in the morning after the government spurned a cease-fire offer from the rebels, but that stopped by the afternoon. Then tonight the fiercest exchanges of fire yet broke out around Tetovo. So while it appeared there had been some reasons for optimism earlier, the more pessimistic scenario appears to once again be taking hold.
Government forces captured some men who were not in fatigues but were armed near Tetovo today. But reports of some major sweep, or of rebels dropping their weapons and fleeing over the Kosovo border, are nonsense. Police officials say the rebels may have moved their command center higher up into the hills, but they're clearly still out there.
The government rejects any talks with an armed group, and it appears to have political backing from NATO for this position. So what's the next step?
The government says it plans to neutralize the "terrorist" threat, but also promised to intensify efforts to address not the demands of the fighters, but the outstanding issues between the ethnic communities of Macedonia. I suspect the police will continue to move slowly into the hills around Tetovo until they encounter resistance.
There were a number of worrying incidents elsewhere. A policeman was reported killed and another wounded while in a shopping mall in the capital, Skopje, on Wednesday. And two Albanians were shot this morning by police at a checkpoint in Tetovo. Apparently there's videotape of one of the men, in civilian clothing, throwing a grenade at policemen. That tape may be very important, because unless the government can show that there was a grenade, the incident may spread alarm in the Albanian community. Also, it could put more strain on the main Albanian party in the government, which has vowed to withdraw if civilians are killed.
So what is your overall read on how the situation is developing now? Is it tending toward escalation or toward resolution?
Well, the lull in fighting over the past couple of days had been some cause for cautious optimism, but tonight's fighting suggests things will escalate. The situation could become more complex if the rebels are in fact moving their bases further out of range of government artillery and heavy machine guns in Tetovo. Because that could turn into a more long-term campaign of sniping and harassment.
The deepest fear among Western diplomats here is of a switch to terrorism, if the rebels realize that trying to take control of territory in a guerrilla war isn't getting anywhere. But there are no signs of that so far. In the capital, there are tensions between the two communities, but neither is as radicalized as their brethren in Tetovo. Obviously, this could change, but so far you're seeing nothing like the willingness to take up arms that existed in Croatia and Bosnia at the start of the wars there. So there are a few more reasons for optimism, but only a few. The rebels are still there despite official claims that they're disappearing, and they're probably going to pop up again in some way over the next couple of days.