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For now, the first one is to convene the indaba. According to Gerrit Viljoen, who as Minister for Constitutional Development is the government's chief negotiator, De Klerk's sole precondition for A.N.C. participation is a "peaceful commitment to a negotiated resolution." That is something the A.N.C. has yet to address definitively. Two weeks ago, the A.N.C. national executive in Lusaka adopted a platform, based on a ten-point plan sent by Mandela through intermediaries, affirming the group's commitment to negotiations and offering a truce if De Klerk meets its conditions for talks.
If the great indaba finally does begin, it could founder all too quickly because the fundamental aims of the two main parties are so far apart. Stripped to their most basic positions, the A.N.C. says it will settle for no less than one man, one vote, black majority rule, while the government demands that an equal share of power for whites be written into the constitution. But the A.N.C. flatly rejects any political system based on racial groups. According to Mandela's lawyers, he has told the government he remains committed "to a single nonracial democratic South Africa with a single Parliament on a common franchise."
Both sides are going out of their way to sound flexible, but how much give is there on either part? Viljoen says the government is prepared to negotiate everything, including its proposal for "group rights," but few believe the whites would give up that demand. A.N.C. leaders have acknowledged a need to somehow provide protections for minorities. But, says Thabo Mbeki, the group's foreign minister, "we will argue that group rights are the same as apartheid."
Perhaps the only realistic outcome at this time is a transitional one, to what one deeply involved Western diplomat calls a "zebra-striped government." Says he: "Power sharing with a real share for the blacks is definitely on offer in the next phase. A surrender of white power is not." But, he adds, once that first hurdle is surmounted, South Africa will be poised for the final jump. "The next constitution," says this diplomat, "will not be the ultimate constitution."
Yet it is far from clear that either side is ready to abandon its maximum demands. Says Lawrence Schlemmer, director of Johannesburg's Center for Policy Studies: "What normally precipitates conflict resolution is a need to limit damage." But South Africa is not in a desperate crisis, and neither the government nor the A.N.C. is feeling enough pressure to make concessions on vital issues.
Mandela is the sole black leader in South Africa who has a chance to bring both sides to compromise. Despite his advancing years and his near fatal bout with tuberculosis in 1988, he was described by a visitor to Victor Verster as "very nimble, alert, self-confident, charismatic, not a mere symbolic leader but someone who is in touch with events." Few others possess the pragmatism that Mandela has honed over the years, which may enable him to grow from a facilitator of negotiations to a reconciler of men.
Yet despite his avowed eagerness to engage in talks, the going has proved bumpy. After Winnie Mandela visited her husband last Saturday, she emerged despondent. Complications had arisen, she said, that might delay her husband's freedom. "It is quite clear," said Mrs. Mandela, "that problems have cropped up about his immediate release."