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It is no coincidence that Moscow's smiling offensive comes at a time when U.S. interests in the region are taking a beating. The collapse of the ANZUS treaty in August, after New Zealand's refusal to permit any nuclear-powered or nuclear-armed ships in its waters, was the most serious blow to any U.S. alliance in 20 years. Antinuclear activism, spurred in part by continued French nuclear testing in Mururoa, has spread through the South Pacific. According to Harry Gelman, a political analyst at the Rand Corp., the Soviets hope to benefit "by identifying the United States in Asian eyes with the nuclear danger."
Of even greater concern is the future of two American installations in the Philippines that serve as the fulcrum of U.S. operations in the Pacific: Subic Bay and Clark Air Base. Leases on the two expire in 1991, and according to a new Philippine constitution, which is subject to a referendum in February, their continued presence will be put to a national vote.
The military troubles take place at a time of growing economic conflicts between the U.S. and the region. American protectionism, which is likely to become stronger now that the Democrats control both houses of Congress, has many Asians worried. Fears abound that the U.S. will seal off American markets, costing thousands of local jobs. There is good reason for concern: the U.S. this year will run a trade deficit of some $170 billion, and more than half of it will be with Pacific Rim countries. Moreover, continued subsidies of U.S. farm exports, which take sales from Australia and Thailand, have outraged friends in the region. The biggest concern, though, is the growing potential for a military confrontation in the Pacific. The U.S. Pacific Fleet now squares off against a Soviet force that is the largest of Moscow's four naval units. From headquarters in Vladivostok, the Soviet Pacific Fleet covers a 1,200-mile maritime zone that stretches south from the Kamchatka Peninsula to Viet Nam's Cam Ranh Bay, the vast airfield-and-port complex developed by the U.S. during the Viet Nam War. The Soviet fleet includes two small aircraft carriers, twelve nuclear-armed cruisers and 180 combat aircraft. On any given day, 25 to 30 Soviet ships are docked at Cam Ranh Bay, just 870 nautical miles from the U.S. bases in the Philippines. At an adjacent airfield is a squadron of 24 Soviet combat aircraft, including 18 TU-16 Badger reconnaissance jets.
Elsewhere in the Far East, the build-up of Soviet land forces, which has been going on gradually for 20 years, is quickening. Some 550,000 Soviet troops now line the 4,500-mile Sino-Soviet border. Moreover, some 147 SS-20 missiles are deployed in the Soviet Far East, each carrying three warheads. Peking's suspicion of Moscow is heightened by the growing Soviet naval presence off China's coast, underscored by Moscow's apparent success in persuading North Korea to grant access to the ports of Wonsan and Nampo and overflight rights that permit reconnaissance missions along China's coast.