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The Hart camp argues that the Coloradan is, by many yardsticks, a stronger candidate than Mondale. Hart won twelve primaries to Mondale's eleven. When states where delegates were chosen by caucus are added, the two contenders tied 24 to 24. Mondale failed to win a Western or New England primary. Hart consistently showed more strength than Mondale among independents and also won the most Republican votes in those states where party crossovers were permitted. Since neither Democrats nor Republicans command a majority of registered voters (a recent estimate: Democrats 40%, Republicans 25%) independents and Republican defections might possibly hold the key to Democratic hopes in November.
The validity of any continued Hart candidacy thus rests on the theory that he has a better chance of defeating Reagan than does Mondale. Hart once commanded a surprising lead over Mondale in polls pairing the two against Reagan. Hart actually led Reagan last March in a Gallup poll, 52% to 43%, while Mondale trailed the President, 45% to 50%. Recent poll readings are less definitive. The latest Gallup findings, taken early in May, show Reagan leading Mondale by 50% to 46% while the President edges Hart by 49% to 45%. Most Democratic political pros estimate that Hart's margin over Mondale against Reagan would have to be at least 10 percentage points to influence many convention delegates. The Hart strategists are eagerly awaiting new polls in the hope that Hart's strong showing in California will push him higher.
The Mondale strategists counter that many of Hart's primary wins were in relatively small states, some of which Reagan seems certain to take. They note that Mondale led Hart in the popular vote 4.9 million to 4.5 million. Even in California, estimates of the untabulated raw votes by candidate had Mondale running close. California, like New Jersey, has a process in which delegates are elected directly by districts. Even a slight edge in popularity is usually enough to sweep a district, since voters tend to pick a candidate's full slate of delegates.
Some analysts contend that Mondale would have knocked out Hart midway in the primary season if Jackson had not been pulling a large black vote, which is seen as more liberal and less favorable to Hart. Others argue that Jackson created a following of his own that would not have voted at all without his candidacy. In general, Mondale's aides claim, Hart was merely a receptacle for anti-Mondale votes and had no real constituency to take into the general election. The Hart rebuttal is that Mondale's traditional party support is too limited and that in a fight against Reagan it would go to Hart anyway.