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Steelmen would also like to use for more productive investment some of the $600 million a year they will have to spend through 1985 to comply with air-and water-quality standards. In just one year, the spending to meet the last 5% to 10% increments in environmental standards is so high that the money could build four energy-saving continuous casters for rolling steel. Says U.S. Steel Vice President Earl Mallick: "If we could invest that money in those facilities, we would have a totally different steel industry."
Leaders in the industry talk much about a steel shortage leading to high returns in the mid-1980s, but that is probably wishful thinking. Still, steel demand is projected to rise from last year's 115 million tons to 134 million tons by 1988. If the industry starts to invest in more productive plant and equipment now, it will probably be able to meet most of that demand without much more than the current 15% reliance on imports. But if nothing is done by then to halt the decline of steel, the A.I.S.I. warns, domestic shipments will drop to about 85 million tons. That would leave 40% of America's steel needs to be filled by imports.