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Critics concede that forecasting has its place. "Whether we like it or not," Spanish Philosopher Ortega y Gasset once wrote, "human life is a constant preoccupation with the future." Indeed, though bad predictions have hurt companies like AMAX, its chairman, Pierre Gousseland, still believes in trying to look ahead. Says he: "Economists are as essential to conducting your business as meteorologists are for anticipating weather patterns. The alternative would be flying blind." But even when the weatherman forecasts sunshine, a cautious person may take along an umbrella. Executives should be no less skeptical when listening to their economists. —By John Greenwald.
Reported by Frederick Ungeheuer/New York