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One of the most dismaying aspects of last week's events in Lebanon was that, until the very moment of the explosion that killed Gemayel, Lebanon had appeared to be emerging at last not only from its summer of war but from the years of domination by the P.L.O. For the first time since the civil war began in 1975, a semblance of legal authority and security was returning to the city. Though he still had many enemies, Gemayel had made firm strides toward national reconciliation, emphasizing that he intended to be a President of all the Lebanese, and not just the Maronites.
Once he was inaugurated, Gemayel planned to introduce a system of governmental reforms and to build an effective national army. He also intended to make peace with Israel, although he was resisting pressure from the Begin government to sign a treaty soon after his inauguration. Indeed, Prime Minister Begin, Defense Minister Ariel Sharon and Foreign Minister Yitzhak Shamir went so far as to meet secretly with Gemayel in northern Israel two weeks before his death to urge a treaty on him. But Gemayel wanted some breathing space; he knew that signing an agreement with Israel so quickly would anger large segments of Lebanon's fractious population.
Gemayel was working on more immediate problems when disaster struck. He had gone to his party headquarters on Tuesday to discuss plans for the Christian militias in East Beirut to hand over their weapons to the Lebanese army. The meeting had barely begun when the huge bomb on the third floor was detonated.
Who killed Gemayel? There was no shortage of suspects. He was hated by the leftist Muslim militias and by the Syrians. The P.L.O. had been his enemy for years. There was also a theory advanced by Arab leaders in Lebanon that Israel was behind the bombing because Gemayel was resisting pressure from the Begin government to sign a peace treaty. The U.S. dismissed such conjecture, pointing out that Israel's interests would best be served by having a strong neighbor on its northern border. But, as one U.S. analyst noted, "it says a great deal about current sentiment in Lebanon that so many suspect it."
Gemayel also had powerful enemies within the Maronite Christian community. The family of former President Suleiman Franjieh had a score to settle with the Gemayels. In 1978, Franjieh's eldest son Tony was killed by men believed to be Phalangists, and the old man swore vengeance. The Lebanese leftists and the Palestinians may have hated Gemayel, but could they have managed to plant a bomb inside the Phalange headquarters? Presumably it would have been easier for one of the Christian factions, which might have had friends inside the Phalange who were ready to enter into a conspiracy.
Whoever the killers were, they left a political void that will not easily be filled. A few possible candidates were mentioned. One was Camille Chamoun, 82, who served as President from 1952 to 1958 and in the end had to seek the help of the U.S. Marines to keep the country from disintegrating. Another was Raymond Eddé, 69, a former presidential aspirant living in Paris. But Bashir's brother Amin has become the front runner simply by announcing his candidacy.