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War Cabinet discussions are shrouded in secrecy, but TIME has learned that the British inner circle has set a strict deadline of mid-June, the onset of winter, for resolution of the Falklands crisis, whether by diplomatic or by military means. Explains a Thatcher aide: "We just can't keep our fleet bobbing around in such harsh weather conditions forever."
The group also agreed on overall military strategy. As they have been doing all along, the British intend to step up pressure on the Argentines by stages. As a senior British diplomat described them for TIME'S Frank Melville: Stage 1 ended with the retaking of South Georgia. Stage 2 began with last week's imposition of the sea and air blockade of the Falklands and the strikes on the island airfields. Stage 3 could include bombing runs against air-bases on the Argentine mainland and a major ground assault against the Argentine forces on the Falklands.
Along with the briskly enforced blockade, the British are considering such actions as sabotage and the blowing up of Argentine supply dumps in the Falklands by special commando units infiltrated onto the islands, as they were onto South Georgia. Last week, the government first issued a rare denial, then a more routine "no comment," at reports that small groups of British troops are already on the Falklands.
The problems with the blockade strategy are the same ones the British have faced since assembling the task force. The major difficulty is achieving air superiority, either tactical or absolute, over the Argentines in the Falklands. The Hermes and Invincible are equipped with only 20 Sea Harrier vertical short-takeoff and landing jet aircraft. The Harriers are highly maneuverable but also are relatively slow (top speed 736 m.p.h.) and have a maximum range of only 460 miles—or about 100 miles for a 1 1/2-hr. blockade patrol. The Royal Navy's version of the Harrier is not well suited to supporting ground troops; for that, the British need a longerrange, Royal Air Force version of the aircraft, the Harrier GR.Mk3. A British container ship, the Atlantic Conveyor, is now bringing 18 of the Harrier GR.Mk3s to the Falklands, but they are not expected to arrive for another week.
Even with the R.A.F. Harriers, the British are definitely outgunned in the air. The Argentines have 82 American-made A-4P and A-4Q Skyhawk attack aircraft, 21 French-built Mirage III fighter-bombers and 26 Dagger aircraft, an Israeli-modified version of another Mirage model. The Argentine Mirage Ills have a combat range of about 745 miles, enabling them to operate over the Falklands from bases on the Argentine mainland. The British may be able to offset some of the Argentine air advantage through skillful use of naval forces. Destroyers from the British task force, equipped with Sea Dart surface-to-air missiles (effective range: about 20 miles), will be on hand to support the Harriers against enemy aircraft, missiles and surface