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Many of Thatcher's colleagues believe that the experience of being Prime Minister will temper her Iron Lady toughness. If nothing else, she will have to deal with several influential senior Tories who are determined to moderate her more radical views. "What will stop her behaving in a grandiose manner on the world stage is our economic situation," says one of them. But that is unlikely to prevent her from lecturing her counterparts in Western Europe. ("God help them," says one colleague.) Another potential Cabinet member sums her up: "She is a powerful lady, but manageable by her colleagues. They believe they can keep her from lurching too far right."
Britain's new Conservative government will not be an easy partner for the Carter Administration. Carter enjoyed a close, almost familial relationship with Callaghan, who was something of a "political uncle" to the President. For their first official meeting, Callaghan brought Carter a bolt of cloth for a suit in which pinstripes were made of tiny J.C.s, their common initials. It is not likely that Carter and Thatcher will develop an equally close relationship. "Margaret will start off despising Jimmy Carter," conceded one top Tory, "but responsibility will mellow her." There will be no lessening of Britain's commitment to friendship with the U.S., but the Tories will not supply the automatic support for Carter's foreign policy that was a special hallmark of the Callaghan government.
Thatcher shares a fear widespread among Tories that in pursuing SALT Carter has lost sight of the global Soviet threat. An early test for the Anglo-American alliance may come over Zimbabwe-Rhodesia. Many Tories favor recognition of the new biracial government headed by Bishop Abel Muzorewa. It is unlikely, though, that the Thatcher government would move to recognize the new Zimbabwe-Rhodesian regime prior to the August meeting of the Commonwealth Conference in Zambia.
Although cuts in public spending will be a Tory hallmark, this will not apply to defense. Thatcher wants to improve Britain's nuclear deterrent force, which currently consists of four British-built submarines carrying Polaris A-3 missiles. The Conservatives want to expand the fleet to six, each carrying advanced Trident missiles bought from the U.S. Thatcher is so concerned over growing Soviet power that Tory strategists have considered the formation of a joint U.S.-European fleet based on the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Committed to ties with both the U.S. and Europe, but without any special affection for either, Thatcher in effect is something of a "British Gaullist." She would like to move away from European economic and monetary union but toward a single foreign and defense policy for the European Community. Although Thatcher is personally a strong backer of Israel, Tory policy is likely to be more pro-Arab than under Callaghan. There are also strong indications that Thatcher will promptly authorize the sale of 250 or so Harrier jet fighters to China, a move that will both outrage the Soviets and disturb the U.S., by increasing Soviet fears of a possible Sino-Western military alliance.