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Still, though most union leaders are publicly backing Meany, they will make what seem the best deals for their members. By the luck of the draw, the first union to negotiate under the guidelines is the Oil, Chemical and Atomic Workers, with more than 60,000 members; their contracts expire Jan. 7. In some ways, Carter could not have chosen a better target had he been able to pick OCAW deliberately. The union's members are well paid; counting shift premiums, they average $9.32 an hour. Moreover, oil refineries are so automated that OCAW could strike and hardly anybody would notice for a while; if there are no breakdowns requiring major repair, refineries can be run by a few engineers turning dials. In fact, says one oil executive, "during one long strike we were actually able to produce more than we did before the walkout."
The Administration has been leaving nothing to chance. According to union officials, it has counseled the industry's executives to be prepared for a long strike and reportedly threatened to reject their bids for drilling leases on federally owned land if they agree to a settlement that busts the guidelines. Says OCAW President Alvin Grospiron angrily: "This kind of interference helps to promote strikes." An industry official in effect agrees: "The guidelines have complicated the situation because the size of the settlement has become a matter of pride with the union. A strike is now more likely."
Whatever settlement OCAW reaches, with or without a strike, will influence the negotiations for a new master freight agreement to replace the one that expires March 31 for 300,000 members of the Teamsters. That contract will be the real make-or-break test of the guidelines. The Teamsters, unlike OCAW, are traditional pattern setters, and a truck strike could paralyze the whole economy.
Last time around, in 1976, the Teamsters won a 34% wage-and-benefit boost over three years, setting quite a precedent—more than 10% a year. Nobody expects the settlement next year to be quite that high. In the past, trucklines have usually won automatic approval from the Interstate Commerce Commission to raise freight rates enough to cover any wage-and-benefit boost they might grant. Now, the ICC, with Administration support, has served notice that it will not be so generous. The Teamsters also are greatly concerned with maintaining their pension funds. It may help that the Administration has ruled that any increased employer contributions necessary to maintain pensions and some medical benefits at existing levels will not count against the 7% guideline.