(3 of 3)
Oregon (6): With only cool campaign support from Republican Governor Mark Hatfield, keynote speaker at the G.O.P. convention, Goldwater lags behind Lyndon.
Pennsylvania (29): Republican Governor Bill Scranton is loyally working for Goldwater, but concentrates most of his energy on retaining G.O.P. control of the legislature. Voter apathy could diminish Johnson's total, but Goldwater isn't even close.
Rkode Island (4): A sweeping A.F.L.-C.I.O. get-out-the-vote drive will help Johnson carry Rhode Island easily.
Soutk Carolina (8): Barry's farm views hurt him almost as much as his civil rights view helps. But hard-working Republicans are likely to get out a higher percentage of voters than the Democrats. Goldwater by an inch.
Soutk Dakota (4): This is a strongly Republican state, the Jenkins case has hurt Johnson, and Republican Senator Karl Mundt is going all out for Goldwater. But polls show Johnson with 56% of the votes, and he will probably win.
Tennessee (11): TVA is not for sale. Johnson comfortably.
Texas (25): The L.B.J. brand won't rub off. Indelibly Johnson.
Utak (4): The morality issue could move some Mormons back to Barry, but Johnson is in front.
Vermont (3): The state has always voted Republican in presidential elections, and the habit may be unbreakable. But habit is about all Goldwater has going for him, and Johnson is narrowly favored.
Virginia (12): As usual, Democratic Senator Harry Byrd is sitting this one out. Abolition of the poll tax has resulted in nearly 100,000 new names being added to the registration rolls, most of them Negroes. Nearly all of them will cast their votes for Lyndon Johnson, making him a precarious favorite.
Waskington (9): Buoyed a bit by the coattails of attractive G.O.P. Gubernatorial Candidate Daniel Evans and favored by normally Democratic wheat farmers who dislike federal farm controls, Goldwater has a chance. But most city voters, including many Republicans, like Lyndon, and he is ahead.
West Virginia (7): The New Deal was ideal 30 years ago, and Lyndon's deal sounds just as good. Big for L.B.J.
Wisconsin (12): In heavily Democratic Milwaukee, registration is down, and the unpredictable backlash vote could give Goldwater a boost. Democratic Governor John Reynolds is in trouble too. But Johnson is strong in usually Republican rural areas because of Barry's farm policy and Hubert Humphrey's popularity. A close one, but Lyndon leads.
Wyoming (3): Barry had it sewed up when he started, but it is rapidly becoming unstitched. Still Goldwater, by the thinnest margin.
There are 538 electoral votes, and it takes 270 to win. If these findings hold firm through Nov. 3, Lyndon Johnson will beat Barry Goldwater by 495 electoral votes to 43.