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Germany may prefer not to have a major front in the Balkans—one which might repeat the patterns of 1918. British and Greek successes in the Mediterranean area threaten to swell the Greek conflict into such a front. The threat, it is true, was last week not immediate, since General Sir Archibald Wavell's continued advance into Libya (see p. 25) seemed to indicate Britain was committed to destroying Italy's Libyan Army, to the exclusion of new business for some time to come. Neither was the threat too serious: the Salonika campaign by which the Allies conquered the Balkans in 1917-18 required no less than 28 divisions—far more troops than Britain and Greece could marshal just now.
Nevertheless the threat existed. If the British ever established an expeditionary force securely in Salonika, the threat would become imminent. Last week Hitler began to try to eliminate the threat in its infancy (see p. 25}.
But a cardinal point in modern German military theory is that allies should fight separately. The Nazis say that instructors, technicians, advisers of a superior ally (which always happens to be Germany) may assist an inferior, but major campaigns should never be undertaken jointly.
Therefore, if another route were open by which Germany might strike Greece alone, it would be logical to expect the Nazis to take it. That route exists, a much shorter, more convenient route than through the Brenner and via Italy. It lies across Yugoslavia and Bulgaria to Salonika.
There were plenty of indications last week that the German Army was preparing to take this short way. Some 30 divisions were gathered in Hungary and Rumania, and more were on their way. Last week 700 huge pontoons, capable of supporting large tanks and trucks, were reported being moved up to the Danube. Rumanians were ordered to have gasoline depots well dispersed and fully equipped by the first of February.
Balkan rumors set a deadline for the German attack. Some rumors even had German troops already in Bulgaria, in mufti.
But the deadline passed. A deep blanket of snow made communications by rail and wire uncertain and made a war by mechanized forces almost impossible. As Italy found in Greece, it does not pay to fight Balkan troops under conditions which give an advantage to old-fashioned armies on foot. Moreover, the Danube was frozen—not heavily enough to bear mechanized forces, too heavily to tolerate pontoon bridges. And there are only three permanent bridges over the Danube. Unless the British appeared in Greece in force, there was no need for haste. But the main reason why such a push could well be postponed until springtime was that political bridges had not yet been finished.