Kiev's Russian Roulette

After deposing a despised President, Ukrainians are watching another powerful leader: the one in the Kremlin

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Yuri Kozyrev / NOOR for TIME

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Will Putin ride to Yermakova's rescue? The Obama Administration thinks it likely enough that National Security Adviser Susan Rice issued a warning on Feb. 23: it "would be a grave mistake," she said, one that could become a full-blown international crisis. But some analysts believe Putin has no interest in seeing a nasty civil war next door, one that could set a precedent for separatist movements within his own borders in places like Chechnya. "It is very much Putin's preference to keep Ukraine together," says Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Try telling that to Yermakova, though. She clutches a bullhorn at a rally she organized on Feb. 22 in Sevastopol's central square. "This is Russian land. Russia doesn't even need to invade. They're already right here," she says, pointing in the direction of the frigates and submarines stationed at the naval base. By some estimates, there are more than 13,000 Russian naval personnel in Sevastopol.

Time on His Side

Putin has other weapons at his disposal that may prove far more effective than warships and soldiers. Chief among them are time and geography. "If you take the short-term view, the situation is of course very unstable," says Andrei Klimov, a Russian diplomat who has been involved in talks with the E.U. over Ukraine. "But Russia and Ukraine have been a union--religious, political, economic, you name it--for a thousand years. And if you look at it from the perspective not of days but decades, that tradition will live on."

Whoever rules Ukraine next, and whatever the level of support he or she can get from the West, there will be no turning away from Russia. The countries share a 1,426-mile (2,295 km) border. Russia is Ukraine's biggest trading partner and the source of much of its energy. An angry Moscow could bring Ukraine to its knees by choking its gas exports to drive up prices, as it did in 2009. Putin could also permanently cut off financial aid.

Or he could simply sit back and watch Ukraine's opposition leaders pull one another apart in public, as they have so often in the past. The figure most likely to cause friction is Yarosh, leader of Pravy Sektor, a coalition of right-wing ultra-nationalist groups, many of which openly call for violence toward members of the old regime and pro-Russian "occupiers." While he jockeys for a key role in a new government, his fighters are manning checkpoints around Kiev and guarding its government quarter, including the secret-police building. If Yarosh hates Russia, he has no love for Europe either. "On the whole, I do not favor any processes of integration," he says. "We no longer want to be the plaything of geopolitics. For the last two decades, we have been kicked around like a football from the West to the East. We've had enough."

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