Kiev's Russian Roulette

After deposing a despised President, Ukrainians are watching another powerful leader: the one in the Kremlin

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Yuri Kozyrev / NOOR for TIME

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Kiev is now in a state of Barely contained chaos, and it's unclear who will assume control. Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, a woman Yanukovych jailed on dubious charges but who is a deeply divisive figure among Ukrainians, is now free and is said to be mulling a run for President in elections set for May 25. Another likely candidate: Vitali "Dr. Ironfist" Klitschko, the former heavyweight boxing champion, whose appeal in a country with a discredited political class may lie in the fact that he's a neophyte. There's also talk of a government role for chocolate king Petro Poroshenko, who made his fortune in confectioneries but has recently served as Trade and Foreign Affairs Minister and won admirers for joining the protests in Kiev. The dark horse in the race for power is the ultra-nationalist Dmitro Yarosh, leader of the revolution's militant wing, who is now preparing for a career in politics.

Meanwhile, a patched-together government headed by Baptist pastor turned interim President Oleksandr Turchinov is trying to restore order before the elections while a multitude of reformers, nationalists, secessionists and corrupt politicians fight for their own interests. Turchinov has already warned against the threat of Crimean separatism, convening a meeting of security chiefs to discuss the anti-Kiev protests on the peninsula. If a referendum were held, the Russian ethnic majority would likely choose an alliance with Moscow and independence from the rest of Ukraine. But the interim government must balance the fear of a Russian-engineered partition with the very real likelihood of financial collapse. "Ukraine is now in a pre-default condition and sliding into the abyss," Turchinov warned in an open letter to the people.

Help is being offered from the West, but with heavy strings attached. IMF boss Christine Lagarde says the fund will help Ukraine if it "wants to actually undertake a reform of its economy," a vow the country's leaders have made repeatedly but never observed. Yanukovych turned away from the E.U. during negotiations in November in part because he feared the austerity measures required in exchange for aid would torpedo his prospects for re-election.

But there's also the nettlesome question of whether the E.U. really wants Ukraine in its orbit--the dream for which protesters in Kiev fought, died and bled. The debt-laden economies of European countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland nearly brought down the E.U. Some Ukrainians wonder why Russia or the West would even want to take on another basket case. "Ukraine is now a ruined country, a charity case," says Anatoly Ponomaryov, a retired major general of the Soviet air force, who heads a local veterans' association in Sevastopol. "Why would Russia take that burden on its shoulders? Same with Europe. It'll be a headache lasting decades."

Eastern Anxieties

Ukrainians are divided into two distinct political camps, broadly along ethnic and linguistic lines. The industrial east, the engine of the nation's economy, is filled mainly with Russian speakers, many of them still nostalgic for the days of the Soviet empire. The agrarian northwest is composed mainly of Ukrainian speakers influenced in their culture and politics by Poland and Eastern Europe, who are at best suspicious of Russian intentions toward their country.

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