(4 of 4)
One consolation for Democrats is that early money buys more than advertising after the leaves have turned. For one thing, some voters will start to cast their ballots, with millions more to come in the next few weeks. Campaign sources think more than one-third of the electorate will vote early--as much as 36% of voters, compared with 31% in 2008--which is another reason the campaigns are blasting televisions about as hard in September as they will in October. "This is not 1980," Messina says, referring to Ronald Reagan's late come-from-behind victory. "By the third debate, a large percentage of people in Colorado and Florida will have voted and even more minds will be made up."
And some campaign officials say that by mid-October, advertising will grow less important. Inundated voters are likely to be jaded and tired of advertising and hungry for unscripted moments that reveal the true nature of the candidates. "What happens in almost any election is that the performances of the candidates themselves transcends their own advertising," says Law, citing the debates, campaign appearances and media coverage as focal points for voters as they start "trying to get a feel for the person." Go figure: after more than a billion dollars of campaign propaganda has flooded through our cable wires, it may be that the decisive factor in November is something money can't buy.
Due to an editing error, an earlier version of this story misquoted Obama Campaign Manager Jim Messina