Kate Winslet, The Reader
In the Best Actress balloting, did Winslet finish in the top five for both The Reader and Revolutionary Road? It's quite possible, given the acclaim she received for the two roles. Yet Rule 6.5 of the Academy bylaws states: "In the event that two achievements by an actor or actress receive sufficient votes to be nominated in the same category, only one shall be nominated..." (The restriction doesn't apply to other categories; this year, for example, A.R. Rahman has two nominations for Best Song.) Then again, Winslet's work in The Reader was surely boosted by another Academy rule (6.4, if you care), which puts all votes for a particular performance in a single category, whether it was listed as a lead or supporting role. If more members had chosen her work in The Reader as a supporting job, that's the category she would have landed in. (See pictures of Kate Winslet's best roles.)
Just 33, Winslet has been nominated three previous times for Best Actress (in Titanic, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and Little Children) and twice for Supporting Actress (Sense and Sensibility and Iris). Sixth time should be the charm. Her work as Hanna Schmitz is bold, coherent and seductive. Toward the end of the movie a stately Jewess (Lena Olin) shows up to shame the hero (Ralph Fiennes) and, implicitly, the audience for giving their hearts to a Nazi exterminator. But it's too late, since the character and the actress have earned our fascination from the outset. Hanna is bitter, magnetic and cursed with an acute moral ignorance. Winslet's is arguably the year's finest, leading or supporting role, male or female. Odds of winning: 3 to 2