Interest Rate Spreads
Modest signs have begun to emerge suggesting that the credit freeze is thawing. But borrowing rates remain way out of whack. Consider the difference between the 10-year Treasury bond, currently yielding around 3%, and a typical 10-year corporate bond now yielding around 7%. That spread of 4 percentage points has narrowed from 6 percentage points in recent weeks but still is double what's typical. Historically wide credit spreads between securities that tend to track closely suggests that borrowers — other than the U.S. government, anyway — are having great difficulty getting funds. When credit spreads across the spectrum narrow it will signal that money is flowing again, a critical development. But Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp., says not to get too excited until spreads narrow substantially. Even a 4-percentage point spread in the bond yields just mentioned is a level typical of recessions. He'll exhale when we get back to a 2-point difference. Also, and perhaps easiest to follow, look for jumbo mortgages which are now about 1.5 percentage points above conforming mortgages to close to within half a point.