Hillary Clinton blunted the momentum of surging Barack Obama, and John McCain pulled out a victory in his old electoral stamping grounds, as record numbers of voters put polls and pundits to shame in New Hampshire. On both sides, it was a political roller coaster of the old school — the wooden kind that shakes and quakes until you really aren't sure how it will end. And then it pulls in to the finish with a shudder, and everyone piles off to get back in line.
"The only thing you can conclude after tonight is that this is going to be one long, drawn-out process," said John Edwards' strategist Joe Trippi, in one of the evening's few moments of clarity.
Turnout was high — but not unprecedented — for the G.O.P. contest. What may have been more unusual were all the last-minute deciders. "I've never seen this many people in New Hampshire undecided this late," said Dale Kuehne, associate professor of politics at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, as voters prepared to go to the polls. Arizona Sen. John McCain, near-broke and plummeting in the polls just months ago, put on the same green sweater he wore for his 2000 comeback in New Hampshire, and even stayed in the same hotel room. "There is no superstition I won't indulge," he said. In the end, the sweater worked: McCain beat former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney by 5 percentage points.
In the Democratic race, New Hampshire voters thronged the polls just five days after a record turnout in Iowa. Election officials ferried reams of blank ballots past long lines of waiting voters just to keep up with demand. Much of the credit for the surge had been chalked up to Obamamania — but clearly more factors were at work.
"We're seeing tremendous excitement and enthusiasm all over the state," New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch said. Chalk it up to high stakes, aggressive organizing, well-known candidates, the lack of an incumbent or weather so unseasonably fine that a voter might feel almost lucky to be waiting in line outside a voting station.
Even Bill Clinton seemed caught by surprise, referring bitterly before the vote to Obama's "tidal wave" of support. "This whole thing is the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen," he said. He turned out to be right, only his candidate was the frog-prince.
Hillary Clinton again lost to Obama among the youngest voters, but she beat him soundly among women and blue-collar workers. And, as in most elections, older voters far outnumbered younger voters, working to her advantage. Thanking New Hampshire in her victory speech, she said she has "found her voice." Echoing the words her husband spoke 16 years ago after he survived New Hampshire, she added: "Let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me."
Before the polls closed, Obama had a quiet dinner at his hotel in Nashua, N.H., with his wife and his sister, no aides in sight. He conceded victory at about 11 p.m. EST and called for equanimity from his voters. "You can be the new majority in American politics," he said, able to "disagree without being disagreeable."
With Clinton besting Obama by only two points in New Hampshire, the contest — and the spin — will only get more hysterical as it moves to Nevada (Jan. 19) and South Carolina (Jan. 26). It remains to be seen which was the exception: Iowa's surge of young and new voters for Obama, or a return to the expected Democratic base turning out for Clinton in New Hampshire.
The Republicans move on to Michigan, where Romney — the Salt Lake City Olympic organizer who continues to tout his electoral "silver" medals — desperately needs a gold. Romney's long-stated strategy was to win Iowa and New Hampshire through aggressive campaigning and big spending. He fought mightily to rescue his New Hampshire campaign, dominating the final pre-election debate and deploying a massive phone bank to make 100,000 last-minute phone calls to prospective voters. But his mid-day confidence wilted as McCain's grew into the evening. In a sign he is learning how to lose, he called McCain to congratulate him — something he did not do for Huckabee in Iowa, according to Huckabee spokesperson Bob Wickers.
Edwards, meanwhile, sagged back into third place, a disappointing finish given his relentless campaigning in the closing days, crisscrossing the state around the clock. But Edwards urged his supporters to take the long view: only about 1 percent of Americans have voted so far and the other "99 percent deserve to be heard." Get in line, in other words, and keep your hands and feet inside the ride at all times.