'Chavez Withdrawal Will Rattle Bush'

"This will come as a big shock to the Bush camp. The transition team had prided itself on Prussian-style efficiency, and they thought they had an airtight process. Bush did not want to repeat the mistakes of Bill Clinton, whose process was haphazard and full of leaks, and where skeletons in the closet came out to topple nominees. So Bush picked what he thought were solid Republicans, like Powell, Rumsfeld and O'Neill, — and he even includes Ashcroft in this category — who'd been through vetting processes before and could withstand the grind, and there wouldn't be any surprises. Chavez has proved to be just the sort of surprise he dreads and hates."

How might the Democrats' victory in stopping Chavez impact on the wider confirmation process?

"In all the controversial Cabinet nominee cases, from Chavez to John Ashcroft to Gale Norton, Democratic senators were telling the outside groups opposing those nominations that they had to have a smoking gun in order to pick off a nominee. In Chavez's case, they got the smoking gun. Each one of those three, from a Democratic point of view, is polarizing, partisan and objectionable, but that would not be enough to actually defeat their nomination. They made clear that to defeat a nominee there had to be something in the past to tip it over — a Nannygate, or an objectionable statement or a compromising photograph."

Will the defeat over Chavez affect the Bush administration's relations with Capitol Hill?

"This won't have a souring effect, because Chavez has pulled out before hostile hearings and a spectacle on Capitol Hill that would cause partisan bitterness afterward. What will affect relations on the Hill will be how the Ashcroft hearings are handled."

And the Democrats have presumably smelled blood...

"Yes, this has reminded them that the incoming president is not invincible, and that his nominees can actually be picked off. But there's a flip side, and nobody knows how the bank shot will come off — Senate Democrats may now be more reluctant to pick off another nominee, which would be good news for Ashcroft. But it could be bad news, too, because all the Democratic staffers can now concentrate their fire on him. Gale Norton is a secondary target right now. Unless there's a smoking gun, she'll get through, after some roughing up. The same is probably true for Ashcroft."

Any thoughts on how Bush will decide on a replacement for Chavez?

"He could say 'in your face' and appoint someone as conservative as Chavez; or he could lick his wounds and pick someone more moderate that labor could get a long with. Generally, a president is given more of a break on a second nominee. To get this first debacle off the headlines, Bush will be more advised to pick a moderate. Or make the political masterstroke of picking a Democrat, although I don't think there's much chance of that right now."