Thursday, the Associated Press, which managed to scrounge up a summary of the as yet unreleased study, outlined the distinguished scientists' grim prediction in no uncertain terms: If greenhouse gases continue to trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere, we can expect average global temperatures to rise between 2.7 degrees and 11 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century. That kind of increase, scientists contend, means cataclysmic changes in our environment: Think melting of the polar ice caps, flooding and drought.
So, who's to blame for our newly toasty globe? Look in the mirror.
Since its last meeting five years ago, the IPCC says it has discovered immutable evidence that human beings are the root cause of global warming, and that we've been particularly harmful in the past 50 years, spewing exhaust and industrial toxins into the atmosphere at breakneck speed.
The good news about our role in global warming is that because we are a major factor in the cause, we can actually do something to change things. The bad news? We probably won't. Governments, including that of the United States, have always been hesitant to rein in industrial polluters and the automobile industry. Three years ago, the U.S. Senate balked at the international community's Kyoto Accord, which would have ostensibly reduced emissions and established detailed regulations to control greenhouse gases.
While the IPCC report won't be officially available until after the members meet early next year, ripples could be felt immediately in this year's presidential campaign. Al Gore, who adopted global warming as a pet project many years ago, may take the report's dire warnings to the trail, reflecting on his own record as an environmentalist and hammering his opponent's perceived weakness on the issue.
And if Gore can successfully sell his ability to enact real change, he might inflict some damage: Not only does Bush make tree-huggers cringe, but the governor continues to insist we don't know the reasons behind global warming. We need more time, he says. More studies. Will he change his mind when he reads the AP story?