Barshefsky, and whoever replaces her in the next administration — and probably in one or two administrations after that — will have their work cut out for them. Beijings liberalization efforts had been headed up by Prime Minister Zhu Rongji, who had hoped to use the conditions attached to WTO membership as a lever with which to force the pace of economic reform. But the bottom line of Chinas political system is maintaining the Communist Partys control and what it perceives would be a descent into anarchy — the overarching concern of the leadership in Beijing is that economic liberalization threatens to plunge tens of millions of people into unemployment as decrepit state-owned industries collapse in the face of competition. China cant afford the social safety net to absorb those unemployed people, and in the context of a social upheaval on the scale of Europes industrial revolution, theyre perceived as a mortal threat to the very survival of the Chinese state. Its that thinking that has driven the crackdown on the Falun Gong religious sect over the past 18 months. Despite the groups apparently harmless blend of Buddhism, exercise and mysticism, the idea of a nationwide organizational structure to rival the Communist Partys was intolerable to the leaders in Beijing. And concerns over the social impact of economic liberalization have seen Zhu increasingly eclipsed in Beijings leadership by hard-liners grouped around Peoples Assembly chairman Li Peng.
The next U.S. administration will find itself dealing with a China that remains formally committed to the path of economic reform but fearful of its social consequences. Of course, the stakes on both sides are already far too high to allow either to walk away from the relationship. But that doesnt mean the marriage will be a happy one.