Milosevic essentially used opposition complaints of electoral fraud to achieve a result that annuls their own victory. The ruling by the country's highest constitutional authority, which has the last word on the matter, requires Milosevic to hold another election six months from now at the earliest — and besides giving him plenty of time to change electoral laws and invent more elaborate forms of cheating, it also entirely discounts the 10-point victory that even the official results had given Kostunica in the first round. But all of that may be academic now that the opposition has moved to claim power directly — Kostunica moved to bring things to a quick and bloodless end Thursday by appealing to the military to recognize his victory in the presidential election. So far, there has been no answer, although the security forces have also avoided coming down hard behind Milosevic.
The strongman may have been banking on the possibility that the opposition coalition would fracture in the heat of violent confrontation that threatens to turn into a civil war. Or that its loose knit alliance would be no match organizationally for Milosevic's security forces in a national battle for power. But that depends on the security forces remaining loyal. To hold on to power in the face of an insurrectional challenge, Milosevic would need his security forces to use violence against demonstrators — and there were plenty of signs in the Belgrade Thursday that troops wont kill fellow Serbs to keep Milosevic in power. The showdown has also made it impossible for either side to back down. The strongmans decision to block all legal challenges and the oppositions drive to forcefully claim the power it won at the ballot box may now have set up a fight to the finish.