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Haitian radio reports that 47 Haitian refugees drowned Friday when their flimsy and overcrowded boat capsized as it started a journey north. "There will most likely be an escalation of violence as the elections approach, and this could jeopardize the American presence there," says Drummond. About 2,500 American troops remain in Haiti as part of a larger United Nations peacekeeping force. They were scheduled to leave the island next February.