"This is five-card draw, all cards down," TIME's Barry Hillenbrand says, describingthe critical Conservative Party leadership vote British Prime Minister John Major faces on Tuesday. If Major wins, he keeps his job; if conservative opponent John Redwood wins, he becomes Britain's new Prime Minister. While Major appears to have the votes, Hillenbrand reports, the conservative party is so riven by disputes that "it's not clear how the 329 members will vote in the secret ballot tomorrow. Major must win by a margin of at least 50 votes. And if there is no clear victor, there will a second ballot next Tuesday, in which case anything goes. Anyone can run. In that case, you will see Michael Heseltine from the Tory left and Michael Portillo from the right jumping in. In the end, of course, the conservatives are battling for the job of captain of the Titanic: Labour is expected to win the next elections."