Why Gore's Move Over Elian Could Backfire

Cynics, and there'll be plenty of them, may be tempted to see Al Gore's declaration of independence from the Clinton administration over the Elian Gonzalez case as somewhat Clintonesque. After all, the President managed in 1996 to break the Republican electoral hold on Florida in part by ignoring the advice of his own foreign policy team and signing into law the Helms-Burton Act, an anti-Cuba legislative package sponsored by two of the most conservative legislators on Capitol Hill. But Clinton's move came amid the nationwide revulsion over the shooting down by Cuban MiGs of an unarmed plane flown over Cuba by exile activists; America appears considerably less enthusiastic about a political campaign over a six-year-old.

There was considerable shock in the White House and throughout Democratic party ranks Thursday when the vice president broke with his administration over the issue, supporting legislation to make Elian a permanent resident of the U.S. and insisting that his future be decided as a custody case by a family court. Gore's announcement, which will almost certainly stiffen the resolve of Elian's Miami relatives to defy the INS demand that they sign a pledge to hand the boy over once they've exhausted their appeal process, appears designed to court Florida's Cuban-American voters, but may spark something of a backlash elsewhere. "It's difficult to see how this can actually help him," says TIME Washington correspondent Karen Tumulty. "The Cuban-American exile leadership is staunchly Republican, and the opinion polls show that most Americans believe this kid ought to be back with his father."

Gore's attempt to jump the fence may backfire on him a lot sooner than the election, however, as negotiations between Washington and Havana continue over Juan Miguel Gonzalez's coming to the U.S. to take custody of his son during the appeal process. Indications are that even once the father arrives, rather than hand Elian over, the Miami relatives plan to insist on a custody battle in a Florida family court — something Juan Miguel Gonzalez is unlikely ever to accept. That would leave the vice president in the uncomfortable position of supporting the separation of a child from his only surviving parent. At least he'll be able to take solace in the fact that he'll have George W. Bush right alongside him.