Havana's latest move may be designed to pull the rug out from under Lazaro Gonzalez and his supporters, whose campaign to keep Elian in Miami has built a new head of steam in response to the INS ultimatum. "If the father were to arrive in the U.S. it would put pressure on the Miami family to hand Elian over because that has always been one of their key demands," says TIME Miami bureau chief Tim Padgett. "But it remains to be seen whether theyd actually honor what theyve said in the past about handing Elian over if his father physically presents himself." Thousands of protesters took to the streets of Miami Wednesday night in a peaceful show of support as Lazaro Gonzalez met with INS officials but maintained his refusal to sign an agreement. His activist backers, as well as Miami area mayors, have warned of a violent backlash if the government attempts to remove Elian from Lazaro's home, while three senators moved Wednesday to preempt the INS by making the six-year-old a permanent resident.
The most immediate problem for the Miami relatives if Juan Miguel Gonzalez arrives, however, will be sustaining their legal claim to custody. The U.S. government and courts recognize Juan Miguel as Elians legal guardian, and it might become legally untenable to sustain Lazaros temporary custody rights if the boys father was actually in the U.S. But Juan Miguel's lawyer, Greg Craig, maintains his client won't come to the U.S. until he's guaranteed custody of his son. And there's no telling whether Washington is politically willing or able to offer that guarantee.